Andrew Sullivan thinks that Bush’s opponents are mis-underestimating him again. Sullivan: "Bush’s problem at home is not one of general disbelief in the war itself. It is a function of the fear that incompetence is ruining the war. History shows that Americans are not squeamish about war, if it’s succeeding. But they are ruthless in getting out of conflicts where they seem to be failing. Bush’s speeches in the next month will be designed to counter exactly that impression of drift. His advisers are confident. They note that even as his poll numbers have dropped, John Kerry has failed to take a lead in the race. It’s also true that the press corps is in danger of over-playing its hand in attacking an administration for partisan and political reasons, when that administration is fighting a difficult and costly war.

There is, in other words, no panic among senior officials. There is a deep sense that neither the war nor the election is lost; and that victory against the nexus of terror and tyranny in the Arab-Muslim world is still still within reach. In the president’s words: don’t mis-underestimate him. The gloomsters have overplayed their hand before; and they may well be doing so again." Bush speaks tonight at 8 p.m., but don’t look for it on ABC or NBC, and CBS hasn’t decided whether or not to run it. The cable stations will run it. This will be the start of Bush’s rhetorical offensive against those who think that Iraq has fallen apart; he will be succesful in the end, as long as the place doesn’t fall into a civil war, and I have no reason to think it will.