This Howard Fineman Newsweek article is worth reading but not, I hasten to add, because his politics is pro-Bush. It surely isn’t. On the other hand it is a valuable insight into how this campaign is going to develop, or if you prefer, how it has developed (helped along by a biased media, which Fineman implicitly admits). The election will revolve around Iraq, Bush’s decision to invade, and how the consequences of the invasion will be seen by election day. The increasingly hostile media environment against Bush will continue through election day. The media (and the Demos) are actually angry at Bush, and they are going to keep hitting, and not only on Iraq. I was watching MSNBC last night and the good economic indicators were ignored and the so-called news story immediately launched into the "middle class squeeze" (that is, Kerry’s latest take on the increasingly good eceonomic news): The price of everything is still too high, especially milk. This gets a bit embarrassing, or it should. But, that will pass and the voters are seeing and will see with perfect clarity by election day that the economy has been, and will continue to be, just fine. Therefore only Iraq is left. The issue not only will be the daily bombings and deaths, and also the transition toward a democratic and moderate regime, but--and this is the crux of the matter--whether or not Bush should have gone into Iraq in the first place. Is America safer? Was it worth the blood and money? And so on. There will be facts on the ground, and, later in the Summer and Fall (and in the debates) there will be Bush trying to make the argument that it was the right thing to do and see the consequences already revealing themselves. Will he be persuasive? I am betting that he will be. But more on that later. Fineman’s last point that Bush will turn into a Carter--that by the time of the debates citizens will have tired of Bush as they tired of Carter--and will be ready to vote for an alternative, even one that they have no enthusiasm for, is simply wrong. In short, as I have maintained for almost nine months, the election will indeed revolve around Iraq. This is the liberal media’s (and the invisible and boring John Kerry’s) hope, and it will come true, and they will regret that it will prove to be true. I’m betting on it and I will go even further--for reasons I will try to continue to explain over the next weeks and months--and assert here that this will not be a close election. Bush will win and it will not be a squeaker. Kerry cannot unleash an argument on Iraq that is persuasive, and the liberal media’s continuing attacks will not be sufficient to overthrow Bush. The media will not decide the election. The American people didn’t get off the boat yesterday (nor did I).