Back to the L.A. Times Poll: Bush now leads Kerry in three important states, Ohio (49-44), Wisconsin (48-44), Missouri (46-44). Says Ron Brownstein: "Like a national Times poll released Wednesday, the surveys underscore the difficulty Kerry has had converting a general desire for change into support for his candidacy." And then this, by way of conclusion: "But warning signs for the president continue to flicker through the poll." Thanks Ron, that was thoughtful.
Check me on this, but I believe that same poll showed that more respondents (i.e., a plurality, though not a majority) believed Bush would win the election than Kerry would. For what it’s worth, this question ("Who do you think will win?" not "Who do you think you will vote for?") seems to provide a more reliable prediction of the actual winner of elections. In the fall of 2000, a prominent pollster visited a government class at my university and asked students, "In my next poll, what one question should I ask people to help me predict the winner of the presidential election?" After he scrutinized several suggestions, I said he should ask, "Who do you think will win?" He gave it short shrift by replying, "Naw, I already asked that one, and the result was fifty-fifty." QED.