Strengthening Constitutional Self-Government

No Left Turns

It’s Kerry’s to lose?

Will Saletan of Slate looks at the polls and argues that the election is Kerry’s to lose. It goes without saying that I disagree, but this is short enough--and clear enough--for you to contemplate.

Discussions - 3 Comments

Saletan is unconvincing when he cites the "favorable/unfavorable" numbers, and polls pertaining to specific issues. Those are irrelevant--Clinton had similar numbers in the summer of 1996, but it obviously didn’t prevent him from winning convincingly against Bob Dole. If polls tell us one thing over the long haul, it is that the American people as a group have a consistent knack for holding seemingly mutually exclusive views simultaneously.

What is more troubling is the very small number of undecideds that we’re seeing. Saletan rightly points out that the Bush team faces an uphill battle in that they actually have to get significant numbers of Kerry supporters to change their minds between now and November.

That will not happen, the real question is how many more republicans will switch to Kerry.

Fwiw, I know two Republicans who say they will be voting for Kerry.

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