According to the latest Newsweek Poll: "In a two-way trial heat between the Republican and Democratic Presidential candidates, among registered voters, Sen. John Kerry/Sen. John Edwards lead President George Bush/Vice-President Dick Cheney 52-44 percent." This poll was taken Thursday and Friday. "Therefore, coming out of the final two days of the Democratic National Convention, the poll shows a four-point margin ’bounce’ in the three- way heat and a two-point margin ’bounce’ in the two-way heat." Newsweek’s analysis of the poll states: "Kerry’s four-point ’bounce’ is the smallest in the history of the Newsweek poll."
If this isn’t bad enough, note this poll by USA Today/CNN/Gallup, done Friday and Saturday. USA Today calls it a "stunning result." What is stunning? No Bounce. "The first time in the Gallup Poll since the 1972 Democratic convention that a candidate seemed to lose ground at his convention." In other words:
Before the convention, according CNN/Gallup, Kerry was leading Bush by one point (47-46%); after the convention, Bush was leading Kerry by four points (50-46%). What is the opposite of a bounce? What do you call a negative five point bounce? I don’t know. Strike one for Kerry.
The best antonym for bounce at thesaurus.com is removal. I like that, so Kerry suffered a four point ’removal’ coming out of the convention.
It shouldn’t be surprising Kerry is in a free fall. (If he is.) Those who nominated him believe he wants to declare victory and come home, raise taxes, ratify Kyoto, appoint federal judges who will circumvent Congress, and allow universal same-sex marriage. There is no reason to doubt that he does believe those things. Yet, he must go out and talk every day with total insincerity, or he cannot be elected. Neither of his opponents share such a terrible burden.
This is a nitpicky point, but the Democratic platform this year has quietly removed its call to ratify the Kyoto protocol. Kerry has told the San Francisco Chronicle editorial board (though this has recevied zero publicity) that he does not now favor Kyoto because he knows it is too costly. Score one for Bush.
No bounce from VP pick. No bounce from convention. Where’s Tigger when you need him? :-)
would be nice if they waited until after the convention was finished before starting that poll. again, look at Rasmussen’s tracking poll.
whoops! I didn’t notice the dates on the USAT poll. sorry for my incorrect questioning of those dates. But I stand by the Rasmussen poll pointer.
I have a feeling that the only BOUNCE were going to see is the one GW is going to take from the whitehouse.
What was it GW said today:
"Our enemies never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we".