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Gallup, Pew, and Rasmussen polls

Gallup has Bush up by 13 points, 55-42%, among likely voters. Here are the detailed results.

But this Pew Poll has them almost even among registered voters, with Bush ahead, 47-46%, with polling done Sept 11-14. Bush was ahead, 54-38%, with polling conducted Sept 8-10.

Rasmussen tracking has Bush ahead by 4 points, 49-45%. "Today’s results match the President’s largest lead since the spring. Senator Kerry has not been ahead in the Tracking Poll since August 23." You figure it out.

Discussions - 4 Comments

For what it’s (literally) worth, check out the graph of the "2004 US Presidential Election Winner Takes All Market." This on-line political futures market is run by the faculty at the University of Iowa Tippie College of Business. Anyone can "play" this market with real money, buying and selling contracts tied to real-world events--the presidential election being one of them. The aforementioned graph shows the history of "bid" amounts for contract payoffs to be determined by the popular vote cast (not electoral colege outcome) in the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election. After the election, a holder of a contract for Kerry/Edwards will receive $1 if the Democratic Party nominee receives the most popular votes in the 2004 U.S. Presidential election, $0 otherwise. Ditto for Bush/Cheney contracts. As of yesterday, the closing price for a Kerry contract (DEMO4) was $0.402, compared with $0.597 for Bush (REP04). For more info, see the Iowa Electronic Market.

HAs anyone ever kept track of Pew polls relative to others, especially in this election cycle? It seems to me that they always show a dead heat of Kerry ahead? Or am I fantasizing?

this is Bush’s peak. This is my own biased opinion, but I will stand by it.

The Pew poll has had, shall we say, sampling problems in the past. Their own consecutive results, noted here, are indicative of that. For a good poll roundup, check out RealClear Politics’ poll summary page. It lists the polls by date, and provides an average of the most recent ones. Currently they have Bush at 49.2 over Kerry at 43.5.

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