Strengthening Constitutional Self-Government

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Gallup/CNN/USA Today poll

USA Today article on the Gallup/CNN/USA Today poll. And this is the detail. The short of it this: Bush leads Kerry by 8 points among likely voters, and 11 points among registered voters. Perhaps mosre important is that in almost every category Bush leads. Examples: Bush’s job approval is now 54%; Bush has a 27% edge on handling terrorism; Bush has a 6% edge on handling the economy; a 52% majority says Bush has a clear plan for handling Iraq; a 63% majority says Kerry does not.

No deep thinking is required here. Kerry has run the worst campaign in memory; he is not a candidate who can get the American people to like him or trust him. His only opportunities left are two: Bush has to collapse in the first debate (the second two don’t matter, in my view), or the economy or Iraq has to collapse in the next three weeks. The only other event that could work in Kerry’s favor is a terror attack before the election. I say it theoretically could work in his favor, but even that wouldn’t because Bush is trusted more, and therefore wouldn’t be held responsible. One last quick thought. Women. Bush leads Kerry among female voters (by 2 points). This is a massive fact, now starting to be noticed. The so-called gender gap, soccer mom’s, and all that silliness, is over. War and security is what is on the mind of married women, especially those with children. I think the barbaric attacks on the Russian school nailed it. Women (especially) were appalled. Kerry can’t get those voters back. Kerry needs to be remarkable in the first debate. He has to turn people in his direction. I don’t think he is capable of doing it. I think what you see is what he is, and he is very limited. It will end in a rout.

Discussions - 6 Comments

What I’ve found interesting throughout this campaign is that the presence of Nader in surveys seems to draw voters away from both Kerry AND Bush (although obviously more from the former than the latter). Who are these people being polled that say they’d vote for Nader if he were on the ballot, and for Bush if not?

I have been predicting a 40 State blowout for some time now. It appears witrh this poll everything is in place for that to happen. Bush is winning in nearly every age demographic group. He is winning women. He support among Jewish voters should rise. I have even seen hints that he is doing much better with minorites even blacks than last time.

Hi,Ca,Il,Mi,Ny,Ma,Cn,RI,Vt,Md and of course DC. That the likely extent of Dem dominance. Dems will look back and ask again why did we send in another NE liberal?

Liberal pundits have been reduced to claims that the youth voter or higher minority votes will swamp the vote tallies. Yet the polls say Bush is winning the youth voters, and even does better in some polls in registered voter or simple adults than even in likely voters. Minorites have only so much upside given that blacks in 2000 voted in higher percentages in Fla than whites. I see no evidence of such passion for this candidate either.

The best news out of all this will be that we won’t have to listen to a bunch of guys who cant think and can barely write, bleating out canards about a 50/50 nations any more.

In response to John’s question, I posit this. They are probably people who are against driving SUVs and other gas-guzzling vehicles, but just don’t want the government passing a regulation telling citizens that they can’t. Maybe that’s the symbiosis that produces a Bush-Nader voter. Who knows?

Who are these people being polled that say they’d vote for Nader if he were on the ballot, and for Bush if not?

I know of many libertarians, so-called "paleo-conservatives, and hard-core Christian reconstruction-types who have as much a viseral hatred of Bush as liberals do. I would have to guess some in these groups would use their for Nader as a "protest" against all the "bums in Washington," and that some are just too moderate in their ideology to actually go for Kerry, in fear that he could actually win (unlike Nader).

Marc’s explanation (for Bush-Nader voters) may be correct, but I have a hard time believeing you’d catch a statistically noticeably number of them in a 1,200 person poll. I wonder if it isn’t also just goofy a-political people, and/or people who’ve taken a look at Kerry and, sensibly, don’t like what they see.

If I might offer a different viewpoint than Mark.

I would suggest that the "Bush if not Nader" group consists of socially conservative, fiscally liberal younger voters. I’m conservative -- politically and socially, and I work with a group of (young) people who consider themselves Republicans and will probably vote a straight republican ticket. At the same time, I am amazed how many "young conservatives" sheepishly admit that they voted for Nader in 2000, and if it were not for their abject fear of Kerry would again. It is not something that they talk about openly, but I’ve been astounded by more than one happy-hour discussion of that very fact. The first two such admissions I thought to be funny. When the number rose to 10, I could not believe my ears.

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