I guess the fact that all four candidates are in Ohio today makes it perfectly clear that Ohio is the most importants state. But please note that Ohio is critical for Kerry, while less so for Bush (if he can pick up Wisconsin, Iowa, and Minnesota). Go to RealClearPolitics for all the polls, both national and state, as well as tracking polls (be sure to glance at yeaterdays figures as well). So, everyone says it is close and it will depend on turnout and independents. I am still not persuaded that it will all that close, nor am I persuaded that the turnout will be the largest ever, over 15 million more voting this year than in 2000, as I heard one Demo apparatchik say this morning. Nor am I persuaded that independents will tilt for Kerry. Thats my story and Im sticking to it.
Take a look at the Electoral Vote tally at RealClearPolitics and do some math to see how difficult it is for Kerry to pull this off.