Strengthening Constitutional Self-Government

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Gallup poll

The Gallup/CNN
poll is out. Bush leads Kerry 51-46%, among likely voters. Here is the way CNN reports it:
"The presidential race continues to be tight, with President Bush possibly holding a slight lead over Sen. John Kerry among likely voters, according to a CNN/USA Today/Gallup national opinion poll published Monday.

Fifty-one percent of likely voters said they would back Bush, and 46 percent expressed support for Kerry.

The margin of error was plus or minus 3 percentage points, meaning the true leader was unclear." Among registered voters Bush leads 49-47%. Bush gets a 51% job approval.

Discussions - 3 Comments

Pardon my ignorance, but doesn’t a 5-point lead, in a poll with a 3-point margin of error, mean that the "true leader" is clear. That means that Bush is up by at least 2, and possibly 8. Either way, it is not a tie, and there is no way it can be interpreted as showing Kerry ahead.

And these partisan hacks wonder why so many people watch Fox news instead.

The margin of error applies at both ends, so according to the poll, Kerry could be winning 49-48 (worst case), or it could be Bush by 54-43 (best case), meaning Bush has a slight lead in the poll, but not a decisive one.

Okay, that’s a pretty serious stretch. it sounds to me likes Kerry is getting his butt kicked. Make no doubt about it, either - if Kerry were leading by 5, it would not be "possibly a slight lead" or "unclear," it would be "commanding" and Kerry would be "pulling away."

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