Michael Barone, one of the most sober analysts in the country, considers what the polls tell us.
This might seem confusing because the media spins it, and because some of them seem contradictory. He clarifies. Read the whole thing, but note this: "Note that George W. Bushs percentages range from 45 to 52 percent while John Kerrys percentages range from 42 to 47 percent. In only one poll does Bush fall below 47 percent, which is Kerrys highest percentage."