Zogby-Reuters: Bush by 4
Posted by Robert Alt
The latest Reuters/Zogby poll has Bush leading Kerry by a margin of 48-44. The poll was conducted over three days, and included one night of polling after the Wednesday debate. This is an increase over the previous Zogby poll, which gave Bush only a 1 point margin at 46-45.
10:35 AM / October 15, 2004
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Fortunately this is telephone poll, and not the internet polls Zogby does. Unfortunately, it is Zogby. Cant take it at face value - 18 days left and no matter what the polls say, keep on pluggin.
Look, polls are nice. They can give you measurement of momentum. But polls like this and many others do nothing but predict popular vote. But electoral votes is where its at and right now whoever wins 2 of Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvainia, will be President (assuming they can scrape in a couple little guys like WV, NV, etc). I just cant imagine a scenario where Bush loses in Ohio. I find it highly unlikely that hell lose Florida. PA is more in play than I can ever remember it being. The popular vote may be close, but this election does not appear to be...
And it will be less so when we capture Bin Laden in the next three weeks. The Falcon knows...
These polls are crap. They are as convoluted as the polls in Australia. The same left wing America haters said that race was too close to call Howard won by a landslide.
The same thing will happen here. Bush wins by a landslide and the Democratic Party ceases to exist as a viable political entity.
Then Zell Miller and the real Democrats can kick the Clintoons and Macauliff out on the street where they belong.
I just was browsing MSNBC.com. On their web poll Bush was leading 59% to 41%. While I dont put much reliance on web polls because they are more biased, this one is interesting. Up until now, when this question has been posed, Kerry was always favored. It seems that there has been a shift in the peoples mind. Even the teacher in the classroom next to me who is a die hard democrat has decided to vote for Bush.
Who cares - I clicked on "In Iraq" and Im getting stuff about this stupid election - what about those guys and girls over there and what theyre facing?