Strengthening Constitutional Self-Government

No Left Turns

Mark Mellman and such opinions

Here is that Mark Mellman (Demo, working for Kerry) column running in tomorrow’s The Hill in which he says it was a good fight, but uphill alll the way, and predicts Bush will win with 51.6%. Read it all, very interesting.
And Larry Kudlow (on the Corner) claims this:

"51.2% TO 47.8%
That’s the call made by Ed Goeas, co-author of the blue-chip, bipartisan Battleground Poll. I spoke to Ed this morning, at 7 a.m. He is using an ultra-conservative, worst-case, 2000-like, partisan sample of 44.3% Democrats and 42.3% Republicans. He tells me Bush has bounced up in the past 48 hours on leadership and Iraq. Also, on the economy -- on keeping America prosperous, Bush has moved up from a 45% to 47% deficit to a 48% to 46% lead. This could be the response to the excellent GDP economic report published Friday and totally ignored by the political-pundit class. Investors may be responding positively to the pre-election stock market rally. Ed also believes that white, conservative, Christian Evangelicals could carry the day for Bush, where 83% look to be voting, giving a 69 percentage-point margin to Bush, and seven percentage points higher intensity support for Bush than labor unions have for Kerry. Goeas also weights Hispanic support for Bush at a conservative 35%, even though his “unaided” tally actually produces a 43% Hispanic vote for Bush. Goeas also believes he is underweighting black support for Bush and male support."

And here
you can predictions from Moser, Schramm and Sikkenga.

Discussions - 4 Comments

I think the Mellman is a plant...The exit data scares me. NRO is in a full court panic. Tradesports and Iowa market data is almost showing a Kerry win.

Your panic is unbecoming. Take a few deep breaths, and perhaps a glass of scotch.

I will as soon as I get home...I didn’t notice Wall Street reacted to the numbers. The market was up 80 points before the exit polling data came out. It’s now trading in negative territory.

that should be "they did" react to the polling data. The market tumbled.

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