The CIA’s think tank, The National Intelligence Council, has taken a year to produce Mapping the Global Future (PDF file, 123 pages). This is Dana Priest’s Washington Post story on it (just because I mention it doesn’t make it reliable, I hasten to add, so take care). The NIC also has a web site (interactive) to go along with the report, called International Futures. I have only glanced at the report, and note especially the section on China and India as especially interesting (at first sight) regarding geopolitics. It is predicted (this is not rocket science) that China and India will become "new global players--similar to the rise of Germany in the 19th century and the United States in the early 20th century" and they will "transform the geopolitical landscape, with impacts potentially as dramatic as those of the previous two centuries." Oh, goody! Back to our study of German history. My view is that we must pay special attention to India; it is underestimated in almost every respect.
I agree that India is underestimated. But it is also true that 80% of Indians live on less than $2 a day. It seems to me that the preoccupation with India and China is more hype than anything substantial at least in the next 50 years. India has a greater chance of transforming the geo-political landscape via immigration from India to the U.S. and other nations around the world. India can colonize the world with its citizens without ever being a power itself.
"just because I mention it doesn’t make it reliable, I hasten to add, so take care" - Oh, really?? Thanks for pointing out the obvious!!!