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GOP’s poll numbers

ABC News poll of a few days ago, has been, so to speak, confirmed by the Newsweek Poll: This shows a 17 point generic lead for the Dems (ABC showed 11) in response to this: "To begin, suppose the elections for U.S. CONGRESS were being held TODAY. Would you vote for the Republican Party’s candidate or the Democratic Party’s candidate for Congress in your district?" If other/unsure: "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward the Republican or the Democrat?" Look at the poll yourself for details. The heartening news for Democrats is that they seem to be gaining strength, they seem to be seen as an alternative to the GOP in Congress, and, at least Dems like to argue, this shows not only that people dislike Bush and the GOP, but that they like the Dems.

The point to be made here is not exactly the same point made by the Dems and their friendly MSM, viz., its curtain for the GOP, we will see the Dems take about 280 seats in the next House, etc. That will not happen. Yet, the news (since Katrina, basically) for Bush and the GOP has not been good, and they have until very recently reacted foolishly, if at all. As Joe poiunted out a few days ago, Bush, Rove, et al, seem to be getting the message and are beginning a counterattack. I am not yet persuaded that people are moving toward the Dems because they are being persuaded by the Dems. These figures are still nothing but a reaction to the bad news coming at the GOP. If these anti-Bush/GOP numbers hold for two or three more months, then I will start arguing that the GOP is in trouble, but not yet. Note that the Dems are not doing well at raising money this year. "From January through September, the Republican National Committee raised $81.5 million, with $34 million remaining in the bank. The Democratic National Committee, by contrast, showed $42 million raised and $6.8 million in the bank." Howard Dean, of course, denies that there is a problem.

Discussions - 6 Comments

Nobody likes weakness. The GOP has looked weak in the press and in their tepid response to criticism. The bad numbers reflect an instinctual aversion to weakness--not an accpetance of that criticism. It can be turned around but not with more of the same. On the other hand, if the Dems really improve their numbers in the coming years it will not be because there has been a revolution in thinking among the people--a la Newt Gingrich’s Contract with America. It will be because the people have lost faith (and not without some good reasons) in the GOP’s ability to keep faith with that contract. This "new tone" stuff is really a loser. Someone in the GOP must understand this and will begin to repudiate it vigorously despite criticism and collect the fruits of that defiance to his great benefit.

WEll friends I think people aught to be talking about this story a little more. The Democrats like to put all the blame for Katrina souley on President Bush but as we can see there own Mayor Nagin certainly dropped the Ball himself:

Ray Nagin, mayor of New Orleans, lashed back at critics after the FBI discovered that up to 700 so-called members of the city police force simply did not exist. Funding for many of these officers was provided by the federal government.

"During the storm and aftermath we’d heard reports that hundreds of New Orleans police officers had deserted their post," said an FBI spokesman. "Further investigation indicates that these posts had never been manned and the funds supposedly paid in wages has disappeared."

"Sure we overstated the number of officers on the force," said Nagin. "We did this to deter crime."

As Nagin explained it, the phantom officers were used as a decoy to frighten would-be offenders. "Just as George Washington lit fake campfires to lull the British troops before his surprise attack at Princeton, we in New Orleans have employed a similar strategy."

The effectiveness of Nagin’s alleged strategy is in doubt, though. New Orleans has one of the highest crime rates per capita in the nation.

As for what happened to the funds that were supposed to have paid police salaries, Nagin asserted that they were used to hire consultants and purchase computer software needed to sustain New Orleans’ "virtual police force."

"The software had to be custom made," said Nagin. "It’s not something you can buy at CompUSA. Software designers don’t come cheap. Neither do the public relations experts who developed our media campaign."

The media campaign featured TV spots of various street people implying that they could be undercover cops. In one ad, an apparently toothless derelict looks into the camera and says "I be watchin’ you. So, don’t you go misbehavin’."

Unimpressed by Nagin’s explanation, the FBI asserted it will continue its investigation.

As far as fundraising goes, maybe Bob Taft (and perhaps his pals Brian Hicks and Tom Noe) can explain the secrets to their success in Ohio when Taft gives his speech at Ashbrook on Nov. 22nd. I’ve heard that rare coins are a great investment these days.

This is interesting, because it is written as though the news is not ABOUT Bush and his problems, but rather the news is the CAUSE of Bush’s problems:

"The point to be made here is not exactly the same point made by the Dems and their friendly MSM, viz., its curtain for the GOP, we will see the Dems take about 280 seats in the next House, etc. That will not happen. Yet, the news (since Katrina, basically) for Bush and the GOP has not been good, and they have until very recently reacted foolishly, if at all."

So, we are to believe two points presented here. One is the tired old bit about the Liberal MSM. The second, however, is that the news has only recently turned bad, and that the Bush administration’s only problem is that it has not reacted well to this sudden turn of events!

So, which is it? Are we to believe that the news has been good until recently, despite the liberal bias of the MSM? Or, are we to believe that Bush’s ability to restrain the liberal media juggernaut has ultimately exhausted itself?

And finally, just in case no one else points this out: The bad news is ABOUT Bush! It is not a problem for him to react to, he IS the problem!

Liberals and Democrats have been trying to warn the rest of the country about his myopia, and his hawkishness, and his lack of economic sense, and his disdain for civil liberty, since he ran against Gore, when his most sophisticated economic analysis was "FUZZY MATH!".

So, the chickens have come home to roost, and you still see that as an image management problem? Wake up!

Here are some promising poll numbers for everyone to chew (or perhaps, choke) on over lunch. I found this particular morsel to be particularly sweet and delicious:

"Fewer than one in 10 adults say they would prefer a congressional candidate who is a Republican and who agrees with
Bush on most major issues, according to a USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll taken Friday through Sunday. Even among Republicans, seven of 10 are most likely to back a candidate who has had at least some disagreements with the president."

Yeah, so? I’m sure most Republicans are (unlike President Bush and most Democrats) for the enforcement of existing laws with respect to immigration.

Unless you can show that these same people who are disagreeing with Republicans (read: President Bush) on some things ("major issues") are agreeing with Democrats on even more things, you can’t say (and mean anything) the these are promising numbers for Democrats.

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