Strengthening Constitutional Self-Government

No Left Turns

Ohio elections

George Will on the Ohio Senate race between incumbent "moderate-conservative" Republican Mike DeWine and liberal Democrat Sherrod Brown. He thinks it will be a late election night. Maybe, but DeWine will win for two reasons, and the second is more important: First, Brown will show himself to be more liberal than Dennis Kucinich and is very hostile to free trade; second, Ken Blackwell will win the GOP primary for governor, and that will help move all GOP candidates away from Taft. Blackwell has always distanced himself from Taft (partly by Taft’s choosing) and is also the most intelligent and principled Republican in the state. He will have long coat-tails. Today’s poll in the Columbus Dispatch shows that Blackwell is ahead by 11 points. I predict that Blackwell will take the primary by 20 points, if Petro doesn’t pull out.

Update: I fixed the link, sorry.

Discussions - 4 Comments

Uhh . . . Dr. Schramm,

That "Columbus Dispatch" link goes nowhere . . . :(

Or, alternately, Dewine will distance himself from Blackwell in a not entirely shocking display of inside the beltway RINO know-it-allism, having concluded the Blackwell is a "polarizing figure."

I think DeWine will pull it off - but not for the reasons you stated. On trade - Brown probably wins with most of the mainstream voters in Ohio. The manufacturing job loss is felt everywhere and makes fighting against NAFTA or CAFTA a positive for many.

And, I doubt Blackwell will have any coat-tails.

DeWine will probably win b/c of incumbancy and a better run campaign.

Without expert knowledge of Ohio, I would have to second WM’s and Nick’s comments. It’s hard to see a candidate winning statewide in Ohio on free trade. Leftists often win elections in non-leftist states by hiding their politics, and why couldn’t Brown, aided by the Democratic media, hide his? Finally, it’s not clear why Blackwell would have coattails. Many people like to split their tickets. Six years into a Republican presidency and God knows how many years into Republican control of the Ohio governorship, Blackwell has to thread a needle -- he must represent change, without seeming like a risk. Without a friendly media covering for you, it’s hard to do. DeWine inspires no one, AND the Democrats are hungry for a win. It’s a recipe for defeat. DeWine could win, and so could Blackwell. But it is hard to see the justification for confidently predicting either at this point.

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