Strengthening Constitutional Self-Government

No Left Turns

No Democrat wave

I said to someone this morning (again) that I did not think the Democrats would take back the House. Once again, I was looked at as if I were a martian. This will continue for maybe another three or four weeks, and then the clouds will lift and people will begin to see that it is extremely unlikely that Nancy Pelosi will become speaker. This New York Times already points to the fog lifting in New York state. And note this bad news for Dems coming out of Georgia.

Discussions - 7 Comments

Perhaps, but overconfidence kills just as surely as complete demoralization.

There’s unfortunately a lot of both among Republicans right now.

What we need is aggressive resolve. Not for nothing is the Democratic party the most successful political organization in the history of the world. They will make mistakes, and already have. But we’ve made our share too, and the Democrats won’t do our work for us.

I’ve spoken to a very limited sample of politically-connected Georgia Republicans. No one would bet the farm on either a Burns or a Collins victory. It’s not outside the realm of possibility, as this could be a good year for Republicans in Georgia (one of my sources suggested that the gubernatorial race is effectively over already), but Marshall and Barrow are running away from the national Democratic Party, and it will be at least somewhat difficult to saddle them with Pelosi and company, however much their reelection would genuinely enhance that prospect. In any event, we are confronted with the perhaps unusual prospect of Republican challengers needing to run on national themes, albeit against the prospect of a Pelosi speakership (which we all ought to face with shuddering), rather than for the Bush Administration.

Georgia is somewhat the exception to the national rule, although I think that in my district (Gingrey’s) the incumbent would be in trouble (and he’s a solid member of Congress and liked well enough) if the challenger were credible. As Joe says, the two really competitive districts could go either way, and so it’s very possible that Georgia would be the one state with a Republican pick-up (nationwide, according to Cook, almost no Democrats are all that vulnerable). I don’t think the Gov. race in Georgia is over. The incumbent is not particularly disliked, for the most part (Perdue) and he has a fairly repulsive challenger (the Big (=really fat) Guy-Taylor who won a moderately bitter primary. The loser in the primary--the capable public servant Cathy Cox, might well have won in Nov.). But revenge voting doesn’t show up well in the polls--the Confed flag lovers and the school teachers want revenge over allegedly unkept promises. It’s the revenge voting missed by the pollsters that propelled Perdue to a fairly big upset 4 yrs. ago; some of those who elected him want his hide now. And there’s still a lot of soft money being spent to discredit Perdue and, as always, some of the items of the laundry list of misdeeds and evildoings could prove very troublesome if they catch on.

One of my sources said that Cox ran an incredibly inept campaign, and noted that Taylor is a street-fighter who has never lost an election. She’s being a bad sport, which doesn’t help her with her once and future party colleagues. The question is what her supporters will do: will they stay at home or turn out for the really fat guy who did her in?

FWIW, Governor Perdue has been kind enough to respond to my invitation to visit campus, while his opponent hasn’t even replied to my inquiry. (That said, I’ve experienced indifference to my invitations from both parties, not just Democrats.)

Cox’s campaign never got off the ground, but she would have been a competent governor. Taylor won because of her ineptness and not because of his prowess. Still, the Big Guy will do what it takes to win, and that means punching Perdue repeatedly below the belt (as street fighers do and everybody is vulnerable there--especially those who made the questionable decision not to put their business stuff in a blind trust while they’re in office). Finally, the Cox voters come home to Taylor; even the mid-town gays stop sulking about both candidates’ insensitivity to their issue. Democrats are voting this year. Perdue is still the favorite, but it’s not over, and I’m sure the race is closer than the polls suggest (polls that repeatedly give Perdue slightly over a 10% margin). (It helps Perdue a lot that Ralph Reed is out of the picture, having been defeated by a lightweight but reliably cons. guy who will be elected Lt. Gov. easily.)

Here’s the latest public polling data, via Peachpundit, where the poster notes that the Libertarian candidate is doing respectably so far and one of the commenters notes that Taylor started out behind his primary opponent as well.

If that Libertarian number is accurate, then Taylor has a reasonable chance. They’re could easily be a runoff and then all bets are off. I doubt it is accurate. But also remember that SP was down about that much to the incumbent (Barnes) just a week or so before the last election. All in all, it’s not over.

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