I have done a few newspaper interviews over the last week or so on the upcoming elections. One reporter actually laughed at me when I told him that I thought both Blackwell and DeWine would win! No wonder. Look at the polls; that’s the only thing they think they understand about politics; they think polls are politics. I think reality is politics, and I think I see reality more clearly than the MSM and the polls do! The Columbus Dispatch runs an above the fold front page story on their latest poll: Strickland leads Blackwell, 52-33%, and "shows that a near-sweep of statewide races appears within the grasp of Ohio Democrats." The poll was based on 1,791 "randomly selected" registered voters. Note also that Sherrod Brown (D) leads Sen. Mike DeWine, 47-42%. Also note that DeWine gets 16% of the black vote, while Blackwell gets only 15%! Does anyone really think this is the case? Get serious. This pollster is a thief.
But, the story is an easy and quick read (and see the details of the poll), so I won’t try to recapture any more of it (although also note that in the poll the Dispatch called Blackwell’s running mate Charles, instead of Tom Raga!). The thrust of the story is that Blackwell is "struggling to keep fellow Republicans in the fold." Every poll has Strickland ahead (none lower than 50%).
Despite the facts (as the social scientists would say) I see no reason to change my opinion about the elections (either in Ohio or nationally; see Joe’s post below). If the so-called scientific polling stays as is three or four days before the elections, then I will re-think things: then the GOP will take a very serious beating and not only in Ohio. But the numbers will not stay; and they are not meaningful even today. So, on this pretty Ohio day, I will get on Isabel, place a Blackwell bumber sticker on her, and do some campaigning!
I dont think this is Blackwells year, but remember that this is a mail-in poll with a response rate of 16 percent. What weve probably learned is that Democratic voters are more motivated to return their mailed polling cards, rather than toss them with the rest of the junk mail.
Maybe Dems are more motivated to respond to pollsters, and maybe, in Ohio this year, theyre also more motivated to vote.
Blackwell needs to take control of this campaign. Very hard to do with a hostile media. No one should bet more than an empty beer can on his chances, unless they have money to burn.
Mr. Schramm, could you please elaborate on why you believe that "this pollster is a thief"? Also, does your use of quotation marks indicate that you do not believe the poll was conducted on randomly selected registered voters?
I hope youre right. I live in CT and Im using every resource available (blogging, donations, etc.) to help the GOP.
Sorry - but I would have laughed too. Both polls and political reality show Blackwell getting beat very, very badly. DeWine v Brown will be close.
As far as the rest of the Statewide candidates. Betty will probably pull it off and Blackwell will drag down the rest of the R ticket and Dems will probably win SOS, Auditor, and Treasurer. Ohio Supreme Court - another toss up.
Just lately, my main concern in the Ohio elections is this new "mail-in absentee ballot" thing. If people can make their decisions now, via this mail-in option, before the whole political cycle has played out, (i.e., before we even have our yard signs up!) then, I think, Republicans could be in trouble.