Strengthening Constitutional Self-Government

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The Election

There’s some sense things are getting a bit better for the Republicans, and the latest studies suggest that the Senate has moved from a likely Democratic takeover to a likely Republican hold, if barely. Here are the latest Bloomberg poll results. They are encouraging for MO and TN, with the Republicans not only leading but approaching 50%, and my general sense from my Tennessee friends is that Ford is fading a little. The results from VA are not so good, as Allen has apparently fallen behind. Most disturbing, from my view, is that Kyl’s lead in Arizona is shrinking; he really is a fine senator who richly deserves to be reelected. And he still likely will be.

Discussions - 10 Comments

I voted early in the AZ election, and I cast my vote for Jon Kyl. His opponent, Jim Pederson, is trying to position himself as someone who’ll "change Washington" for the benefit of us in Arizona. It’s a typical campaign line and will probably be believed by many. But in truth no rookie senator really makes a difference, even if his or her party is in the majority.

A lot of people seem to think that Arizona is as red a state as they come, what with legacy of Barry Goldwater. But the truth is the legacy is really more libertarian than conservative, and of late the state is being flooded by northern snowbirds and Californians. The state is really quite purple now, and going more blue by the year.

I too hope Kyl wins and the Republicans hold both houses. Any thoughts that such an outcome will lead to a Democrat Party "implosion" are simply foolish -- they’ll simply turn their attention to 2008. The only way to force an "implosion" of the Democrats is to beat them soundly, and this election is not going to be that.

The Republicans have really done a poor, poor job managing their image over the last three or four years. Sure, the MSM is actively engaged in an effort to taint the image. If asked what the Republicans stand for, I think most would be hard pressed to offer a good answer. It really depends on which Republican we’re speaking of -- there seems no theme that unites the party. In that sense, I think Hugh Hewitt was onto something with his four-bullet slogan which, if it had been embraced across the board, might have created a greater sense of purpose. But now it’s really nothing but a pitiful display of petty grasping at power maintenance.

I recall after the 2004 election much crowing about how Republicans "drubbed" the Democrats. I thought to myself, "No it wasn’t ... it was, if anything, far closer than it should have been." If only the RNC and many of the "conservative bloggers" out there had not gotten so cocky, perhaps a good deal of the troubles we’re seeing now would be less severe.

Kyl is pretty safe and Corker and Allen should both win. That said that is not necessarily a good year. We should never lose the senate and ought to have a permanent majority of 55-60 votes. Chafee, Burns and Santorum will fall, making us minus 3 at best. Given the envirionment thats ok. But DeWine and Talent are very much still on the ropes, a loss by either of them (or Kyl, Corker, Allen) makes this a bad year in the Senate.


A stuffed burger at Walter’s says Santorum wins. A drink of your choice (non alcoholic) says Burns wins. I’ll bet the moon the country will be better off when Chaffee loses. DeWine’s gonna win and Talent too...well maybe not DeWine. Allen, Corker, Kyle? They’re all in. And by the way, we’re gonna keep the house too. Irey to beat Murtha? Would that it were. She will beat him in ’08 though. You heard it here first.

this is further proof that a poll is only accurate if you agree with it.

sorry, that was poorly phrased - "only accurate if you like what it tells you."

You gotta admire UG’s spirit and willingness to pick up the check. But I hope he’s right.

Peter: I wouldn’t get too discouraged about one bad poll result in the VA Senate race. All of the other polls tracked by Real Clear Politics for the VA Senate race:Real Clear VA Senate Polls have Allen ahead.

And if you read the analysis by Jim McTague at Barron’s this week, you’ll know that Allen has a huge money advantage over Webb.

DeWine and Santorum are toast. Chafee, thankfully, is also toast. Burns has a slight chance, but it’s more likely to come down to Talent, who is still in deep trouble. (I say that because a 50-50 Senate is not good for us. It’s a phony majority that will result in a power-sharing deal as in 2001). Allen clearly has the ability to blow it, and those pathetic New Jerseyites ... well, what can one say? Menendez, "crooked American," will win.

David Frisk - I don’t know about PA and Santorum, but conservatives in Ohio always hold their noses and their principles and vote for DeWine. He holds some fascination for the "moderate" voter, and Catholics usually like him. He is reliably, though marginally, better than the alternative. As in this case, when Sherrod Brown always sounds silly when his opponent gets him to extend the logic of his political stands. He was our Congressman for awhile and people out here still loathe him.

Why pathetic New Jerseyites? The gay marriage, or union, or contract, or whatever they end up with that will kill their insurance companies by requiring coverage for AIDS?

In his acceptance speech, Tom Kean will have to thank the New Jersey Supreme Court for helping him win that state’s Senate election. Couldn’t have been better timed.

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