I’ve been asked to make election predictions. The problem I have that when I participate in pools and such--football, academy awards, etc.--I never pick those I really think will win, but those I’m rooting for. And so I never win, but I always enjoy myself.
Peter’s Republican optimism, given below, makes him more of a faith-based Straussian than I am. But I appreciate his defense of his own against all odds.
I would rather not do this, but I’m going to say what I really think based on the information I really have.
For the Senate: MT, MD, and VA at this point are all Republican long shots. AZ is a Democratic long shot. TN and MO are toss ups. The most likely result if the odds are calculated honestly: D 50/R 50. What would I really bet, given how D this year is: D 51/R 49. If I got good odds or had a couple of glasses of red wine, I would certainly bet on both Steele and Ford: That would return it to 50/50. So I’ll a be a little reckless and say 50/50.
For the House, if you really take the toss-up races and divide them evenly, the Ds would pick up about 25 seats. But they’ll do better than that; the truth is they have the momentum and the intensity, and there really is a blow-out belt in NY, PA, IN, and (yes, Peter) OH. (And as Steve H. notes below, the news from Iraq is very troubling.) So I say (it’s not my hope) the Ds will pick up 32 seats.
As a lover of federalism, my view is that the stats on the distribution of the governors are meaningless. Besides, those races are subject to state-specific factors about which I know little. So I will limit myself to the prediction that the Republican governor of Georgia, Sonny Perdue, will be reelected.