The other campaigns can’t be too happy that, in the end, a Peter Hart-run focus group, described here and here, and discussed here by Michael Barone, was offered a choice only between Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson.
Actually, from their point of view, two pieces of good news seem to come out of the group. These Republicans seem to be moved relatively easily off their initial preferences for Giuliani, even toward someone who has made as little an impression as Thompson has. Giuliani’s front-runner status might be very tenuous. And second, everyone’s support seems to be soft. There could well be lots of movement between now and the elections.
The eventual nominess, whoever he is, can perhaps console himself with the thought that the one passion Republican voters have is directed against Hillary Clinton. In this respect, the 2008 Republican season resembles its 2004 Democratic counterpart. Is Rudy Giuliani Howard Dean or John Kerry, the early favorite or the eventual nominee, carried more by illusions of electability than by any real affection?
What's the use of Huckabee? Or a Tancredo? They're not going anywhere. And Thompson hasn't the national organization necessary to capture the nomination. McCain blew himself up by continuing to attack the base of the party, and the values of the base of the party.
So who is left? Romney, he of a thousand positions, and Giuliani.
Once that Super Tuesday is over with, {what is it, like the first week of Feb.} we'll know who our nominee is going to be.
And then contrasts will begin between that nominee and Hillary of Borg, and that will be the point where support begins "firming." But not till then.
Of course between now and then there will be much noise, much "wailing and gnashing of teeth."
According to Intrade, Ron Paul's third for the Republican nomination, behind Giuliani and Romney. He just raised $4.2 million in 24 hours--more money in one day than any other Republican. And Huckabee just got a nice feature piece in Newsweek; I don't think he's going away any time soon.
This is just what I have been saying. No one out here in the hinterland is certain of a R. candidate. We are all out here watching and hoping that someone just right turns up, because no one, sorry tiger and hat tip, is happy with the current set and all are hoping for clarity in the near future. Maybe maybe media coverage leaves us all nervous. Maybe Dan is right. I find that I do so hope that something interesting and unconventional happens at the convention this summer. Wouldn't that be fun?
Get a clue and look what Ron Paul did in just *one day* for heaven's sake. The rest of the current crop of goof balls and lunatics don't stand a chance against shrillary
Off topic, sorry, but this report from Iraq seems pretty damn important. We've been burned w/ Iraq optimism before, but the facts are beginning to stack up. The conventional wisdom may be about to alter. Radically.
Sorry to break this to the supporters of Ron Paul, but Romney almost doubled that his first day of fundraising--without his own money.
Thank you, Carl. That is encouraging news.
"And Huckabee just got a nice feature piece in Newsweek"
Never lose sight of this: the MSM is deeply invested in helping a Democrat win. Any time you see favorable reviews of Republicans, it is helpful to realize the MSM seeks to bolster the weaker Republican candidates at the expense of the stronger.