Michael knows his stuff, and so maybe you should listen to him. Obama is the candidate of blacks and academics and other Bobos--including big-time bureaucrats. Hillary is favored by everyone else (at least in PA). She is the candidate, right now, of the Jacksonian Democrats. She can also end up winning the popular vote, giving a moral impetus to the superdelegates to prefer her.
BUT: There is no real popular vote. And there are competing theories of how this mythical entity is to be calculated. Consensus will not be reached, and Michael does a great job of explaining why. Obama will be ahead in the only real category--delegates won. As long as he is ahead there, he can’t be denied, for reasons I’ve already explained.
I think you were way out of it the other day saying Hillary is done, and that Obama is sure to secure the nomination. Just take a look at the states she's won heretofore, compared to those of Obama. That alone should cause the Superdelegates to seriously consider tendering her the nomination.
Obama would have been blown away in the Keystone state but for the Black community coming out in droves, which kept it close for him. Obama even lost the 18 to 29 demographic, which means he lost the youth vote.
So other than college students who are probably guided more by peer pressure than anything else, upscale Caucasian Liberals and the Black community, which Democrats does Obama actually command the allegiance of?
I'm beginning to think that Hillary is going to eke out Obama for the nomination, simply because the longer Obama's campaign goes, the weaker his candidacy appears, and the more threadbare his support. Hillary took Pennsylvania, and took it commandingly, when she was outspent by a huge amount of money. Too bad you guys didn't have the chance to really notice the imbalance in ads, but as I mentioned earlier, Obama's ads were running every day, all day, on just about all channels. He innundated the Keystone state with his message, which is nothing but class envy and grievance, and he got hammered by Hillary.
I'm not saying that Obama isn't going to do it, but people who have been saying that Hillary hasn't a prayer are out there on the plank.
Jacksonians have little purchase on the superdelegates, who are mostly white liberals and minorities. Their views would matter more in a political climate that was more favorable toward the Republicans. But recent whining to the contrary, the vast majority of professional Democrats believe they will win this election and that the party will come together. They are probably right. Therefore, they will 1) do what they want; and 2) go with the recent political flow, which is not driven by Jacksonians but by affluent moderates who, for now, are becoming liberals. The superdelegates are unlikely to reject the new Democrats -- former independents and weak Republicans who believe the MSM, are streaming into their party, and want Obama. They are also unlikely to repeal the principle of reverse discrimination, which, after all, is one of the bedrock principles of today's Democratic party. A black candidate who is even ARGUABLY the legitimate nominee must be given the nomination, just as a tie goes to the runner in baseball. The supers are also probably being influenced by their pro-Obama kids. (Don't laugh, these things matter even at the highest levels.) Finally, Ms. Hillary simply is not a well-liked, let alone trusted, figure in the party. Personal factors are significant when it's a close call.
David F is basically right.