Strengthening Constitutional Self-Government

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Random (Troubling) Observations

1. The new NEWSWEEK poll has Obama up 15 over McCain and with a 62% apporval rating. He survived the grueling primary season (and lots of primary defeats) in good shape, and apparently the Wright stuff didn’t damage him all that much. The election seems his to lose, given his personal appeal and the desire for CHANGE. I’m not giving up or anything, but we gotta to look at the facts square in the face.

2. McCain now is only up one in Georgia. The good news, in a way, is that Bob Barr is polling at 6%, and that number will decline as the election nears. The bad is that the turnout model for the poll probably underestimates the huge African-American turnout. Clearly several other southern states--particularly Virginia and North Carolina--are also in play.

3. VP gossip: Pawlenty is back in the picture for Mac--a boring guy who was barely reelected. Webb and Rendell are both being dissed as too maverick to be safe for Obama. Good point on Webb, but Rendell is also a very competent executive, who would probably secure for Obama a state McCain has to win to have a chance.

Discussions - 6 Comments

Wouldn't worry about ObamaWeek's polling just yet. It's a statistical outlier among the numerous polls.

It's the only one at +15 points for Obama; the rest are 6 or less (Real Clear Politics poll summary).

As for the damage that "The Wright Stuff" might do -- up until now, it's been liberal Democrat against liberal Democrat. Mrs. Clinton could not afford to go all 527 on Obama, for fear of alienating a core Democratic constituency.

Hopefully, we will see Wright, Ayers, Rezko, and other long-time pals of Obama in all their glory during the general.

Take a look at those who declare themselves Democrats and Republicans and you will see why the Newsweek poll has Obama on a big bounce.

Of course, the poll is already weighted to account for race, gender, age, etc!

Eh, lipstick on a pig...that's the best we'll do with McCain. He's only won the nomination because our 'bench' of candidates was short. He isn't conservative enough for the base, and his pro-war stance alienates millions of moderates.

He can win, but only if he 1) reverses himself on a number of issues (environment, immigration), and 2) instills enough fear in the base about impending Obamarama.

To paraphrase Bette Davis, "it's going to be a bumpy ride."

A commenter on another post says it much better than I can:

"They say McCain reads the blogs, so here goes --

Senator McCain- Don't let the campaign kibbitzers muddle things up.

First and foremost, Sarah Palin shares your values. She killed the bridge to nowhere. Need we say more?

As for the politics, Sarah Palin transcends geography. Her constituency, like yours, goes beyond state lines.

She will get your ticket access to voters all over the country based on who she is and what she stands for. Because she's young, a woman, a mother with young kids, she will grab media attention more than any other potential candidate.

Gov. Palin also has a son in the active duty military. You have very wisely taken your son's service in Iraq off the table as a campaign talking point. That is and should be respected. But others can talk about it and reflect on what it means.

A McCain-Palin administration would be the first in memory which has family members in uniform during wartime from both the President and Vice President. That would be a powerful statement as to the importance of national service, especially in uniform.

Most importantly, any Vice President should be ready to step up and serve in the event she is needed. Frankly, who is really ever ready? Gov. Palin is as ready as anybody, she is a quick learner, and in her public career has exhibited the courage and decisiveness needed for a great leader.

Godspeed to you in your campaign and in making this important decision."

On the Newsweek poll and the Georgia poll, neither is credible. The reality cannot be that bad. On Pawlenty, it's true that he had a close election in 2006. But it's equally true that he was almost the only Republican at the gubernatorial or Senate level who won an election that might have been lost.
Especially in a liberal-leaning state like Minnesota, that says something.
McCain's choices for veep are underwhelming, and he cannot win Minnesota. But the fact that Pawlenty won only by a narrow margin doesn't prove much, especially since Minnesota isn't in play for McCain even if he's the veep.

Obama is experiencing a media boomlet after securing the nomination, -------------- the real story is how against the backdrop of a hated President, who is an incompetent, who has the worst communication effort and team in recent times, against the backdrop of an unpopular war, a sluggish economy and skyrocketing gas prices, ----------------------------- with all of that working in Obama's favour, ------------------------- what's the spread.

With just a few adroit maneuvers, McCain can be pulling in behind his six o'clock.

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