Strengthening Constitutional Self-Government

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Religious affiliation and voter preference

Well, this time we have a less obviously religious Republican candidate and a more obviously religious Democrat. Does this have any influence on voter preferences? Check out this Pew analysis, comparing voter preferences at this stage in ’08, ’04, and ’00.

The unchurched even more overwhelmingly support Obama, despite the fact that McCain is hardly identified with religious conservatives. Might there be a secularist ceiling for Republican candidates, with even the most resolutely irreligious conservative (if that isn’t already an oxymoron) facing a pretty low ceiling of support among the religiously unaffiliated?

And Obama hasn’t (yet) made many inroads among white Protestants, who may not be supporting McCain at quite the levels they supported Bush, but aren’t yet transferring their affection to Obama. There are a few more undecideds. The question about the latter is whether a more obviously religion-friendly McCain could win those over. (Please note that I’m not saying that McCain isn’t religion-friendly, just that that’s pretty far from the core of his self-presentation.)

Note finally that white, non-Hispanic Catholics favor McCain over Obama by a larger margin than they favored Bush over Kerry. McCain doesn’t do quite as well as Bush did, but Obama seems to fare considerably worse than Kerry did. 13% of this group are undecided. If one or the other candidate can make the sale here (given the concentration of Catholics in swing states), this could be the election.

Of course, it’s only July....

Discussions - 5 Comments

Wright, Pflegger and the wife. They inflicted vast damage on the false messiah's campaign.

Right now I think there are good numbers of Roman Catholics who would vote for Luther himself over Obama, or vote for Anne Boleyn.

The Dems were idiots picking a guy with such ties, such close ties to Wright and that whacked out congregation, {what other phrase is appropriate but "whacked out"}. As soon as that revelation hit the airwaves, Obama's stock amongst Roman Catholics plummeted. And now he's desperately thrashing about trying to restore the historic moment narrative, running off to Berlin, trying to get himself a speech with the Brandenburg as a backdrop.

As if optics were the answer, as if the visuals were all that mattered.

Junior Varisty. That's what we're looking at folks, JUNIOR VARSITY.

Voting for Obama because he's more comfortable talking about religion, or what he considers to be religion, is just about the height of political naivete.

You refer to Obama as "a more obviously religious Democrat."

Given the radical and obscene ("Bill did us...") "preaching" at his church, it is not at all clear that Obama is "religious" in anything that a Christian might recognize as Christianity.

Trinity UCC is a socialist political club. If the Gospel is preached there, it appears to be rather well diluted with secular messages of hate.

Better the quiet faith of John McCain than the noisome anti-white, anti-American spew of J. Wright and the radical M. Pfleger. Spew all dressed up as religion.

Bingo, John.

I guess I'm one of those swing state Catholics, and this is my vote reasoning. Obama belongs to the Church of What's Happening Now. Everything he does appears to be calculated to benefit him most. I disagree with McCain about many things, however, I believe that he sincerely loves this country and is an honorable person. That is why McCain will get my vote.

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