Greetings from Kentucky Lake. Clearly and surprisingly the Republican convention provided the bigger of the two bumps. The cause is Sarah Palin-both the fact of her and McCain’s boldness in choosing her. Don’t forget how fragile she is as a candidate. Despite what the studies show, I’ve found a lot of undecided voters here in KY. People like both Obama and Mac, but doubt that either is the remedy we need. They really like Sarah but suspect she is kind of a mirage. Thinking is remarkably unideological-a couple of young women told me that they’d really want Obama-Palin. The real issues are the economy and gas prices. People are most impressed by competence and confidence. The present president is universally viewed as having neither. But it also seems that hostility to the Iraq war has diminished
A couple of young women told you that they’d really want Obama-Palin?
I feel pretty certain a couple of young women were yanking your chain.
Yeah, most people who are "undecided" at this point will be so undecided that they won't vote. I'd say only about 10% of voters will actually make up or change their minds now to election day. The others are people not ballsy enough to admit that they really don't vote.
I think that on domestic policy most undecideds have a sense that things are not going well, that McCain would not make things much better but also not much worse, and that a President Obama might bring big changes but they can't tell if it would be a big improvement or a disaster. In such a choice, Hope would probably have triumphed over resignation. One thing the Palin pick did was it strengthened McCain's argument that he would bring REAL CHANGE and not just be a somewhat more competent and less partisan version of the current Republican status quo. Its interesting and smart that the today's McCain ad (The Original Mavericks") focuses on how McCain took on the corrupt Washington Republican establishment and how Palin took on the corrupt Alaska Republican establishment.
Thats smart, but that approach has real limits. People are sick of and cynical about Republican rule and any successful Republican in 2008 has to minimize the taint. But people are alot more upset about high energy prices, rising unemployment, rising healthcare cost and stagnating wages than about Republican corruption. McCain has found his voice on energy and the Democrats are on the defensive. On the other domestic economic issues he hasn't done as well. Even though the polls have turned, I still think McCain's convention speech was a missed oppurtunity. Most people still don't know what McCain would do about healthcare, jobs, or wages and thats a problem.
Energy is far more important than corruption, the price of gasoline much more pressing than whether or not some political voluptuary gets indicted.
Sure the electorate desires clean, competent governance, -------------- but gasoline over 2.25/gallon is driving them nuts, and rightly so.