Charlie Cook, a most capable and balanced analyst, explains why it might be reasonable to think it is. Obama has all the advantages when it comes to organization, enthusiasm, money, and early voting. Any "Bradley effect" (and they’ll probably be very little) will be negated by the huge African-American turnout. The focus won’t shift from the economy prior to the election. Today’s polls are slightly worse for McCain than yesterday, and Obama’s is still viewed every favorably. Surges require more troops and a new strategy, and McCain doesn’t have either. I’m not SURE about the bottom line here, but Charlie makes it tough to ignore so much evidence.
So as not to seem too defeatist, let me add some Zogby data showing McCain remaining competitive and even gaining ground in the key battlground states, despite slide a bit nationwide. We still have to wonder whether McCain has the resources to close the deal in these states.
UPDATE: Zogby, sadly enough, shows rapid movement to Obama over the last 48 hours.
There is almost ZERO enthusiasm for McCain even in the reddest states. I live in one of such and I see a dozen or more Obama stickers every day, but I've seen maybe 4 McCain stickers this entire year. The GOP has failed. They've failed the people who traditionally support them because they've done nothing. McCain screwed up in 3 areas: 1) support for amnesty; 2) support for bailing out irresponsible home buyers; 3) supporting more tax cuts for the rich. If you're a 30 or 40-something middle or working class voter married with a few young kids, why do you vote GOP? You've been struggling to stay afloat, squeezed on the wage side by outsourcing and legal and illegal immigration, squeezed by higherhome prices in recent years or, if you own a home, by a neighborhood that looks more like Tijuana each day. So you vote GOP for social and/or religious reasons; because you believe in a political philosophy that rewards hard work, responsible choices, and playing by the rules. The GOP has broken every tenet of that philosophy: they reward illegal immigration, squeeze American workers wage-wise, and say they're going to boost the economy by cutting whose taxes? The taxes of the rich. The GOP is over, and will be until they realize why people voted for them to begin with. Lip service, which social consevatives have been getting for 30 years now, will no longer suffice.
Lip service, which social conservatives have been getting for 30 years now, will no longer suffice.
I hope you are right Bill. By the way, you won't find too much of a reception to your assessment here. Too many GOP cheerleaders/Rockefellers sympathizers. The rest have swallowed the "I can't throw my vote away" and "the judges, my god, the judges" that keeps them voting GOP year after year...
Does this work?
What do you mean by the reference to the 'rockefellers' other than an obvious reference to the rich?
Last weekend I was visiting the lefty-loving Central California Coast, Steve Hayward's part-time stomping grounds, and was surprised by the number of McCain/Palin yard signs. I saw many more of those than I did Obama signs.
Of course, the people putting them up may have known they were hopelessly outnumbered and may have done so just to annoy their neighbors.
Second try here:
What do you mean by the reference to the 'rockefellers' other than an obvious reference to the rich?
I mean the 'moderate liberal'. These folks are actually the 'insiders', those who actually make the decisions when the GOP governs. They are to the right of the Dem's socially, but just barely (thus they are really at odds with the 'middle' and the 'conservatives'). Economically, they are all over the place - in other words they are crony capitalists. Libertarian (say, on corp. taxes or environmental cleanup) but also quite socialists (say, on medicine) when it helps their bottom line. Politically, they have no problem trying to buy votes (Prescription Drug Giveaway - which did not satisfy the AARP ) even when it is painfully obvious just how un-conservative it is.
In other words, we are talking about the modern GOP. Thankfully, they are going to get smacked again this election. Give us honest liberals (the Dem's) over dishonest ones!