The best news today: McCain did better, once again, on the RCP average. And he’s only three down in the Rasmussen trackng, which is widely thought to be the best of the trackers. Obama is also topping out at around 50 everywhere, it seems. That allows us to have some hope that the undecideds breaking massively for McCain...
The worst news: McCain seems behind in all latest polls from the battelground states, although usually not by much
There's been so much variation and volatility in the polling that a McCain win could ignite a wider and more public scrutiny of the assumptions that underwrite polling practices. That being said, one concern of mine is that A McCain victory would ignite a nasty battle in the courts---the general line in the media that Obama is comfortably ahead lays the groundwork for a lot of contentiousness in the aftermath.
I wish I could say that the tightening of the polls kindled my hopes, but the tightening mostly causes regret. Short of an Obama super-mega-gaffe, or a sudden international crisis, I find it hard to see how McCain overcomes the combination of Obama's lead (however big or small), Obama's superior GOTV operation in the battleground states, and Obama's ability to flood the airwaves all in less than a week. If only McCain's campaign were only better organized. If only he had worked harder at selling his reformist domestic policy. If only McCain had been less cynical and frenetic in response to the financial crisis. All this just points out that this election really was winnable for the Republicans - though even a great campaign with a great candidate would have been an underdog.
Still, there is a chance McCain will pull it out. The chance is both sadly slim and agonizingly real. Conservatives should support the better man with the better ideas. We should not require the guarantee or even the reasonable expectation of victory in order to stand by our own principles and prudently support those who best represent them (or at worst, do them the least harm).
I think Captcha just threatened me. The two words are "GREEK Bankruptcy"
Pete, very eloquent and on the money. My captcha words are FRANKLY CLOSED, which might be about McCain's chances. Or the may be about the American mind, for all I know.
A thread so empty of thought, an ideology so much in despair at the coming defeat, that they are given to interpreting captcha spam blocker words. Not even the arbitrary collision of millions of words can get past your filters.