1. The national tracking polls are about the same or maybe a very slight McCain drop. I’d say he’s closer to 6 than 5 down.
2. But the new state polls from a variety of sources are discouraging. Obama seems to have large leads in VA, NC, and OH. Clearly McCain would need all three to win, and just as clearly Obma is better organized. And VA and NC will probably have a bit of the ol’ reverse-Bradley effect, as they did in the primaries.
3. Senate: Bad news--Dole seems to be falling further behind in NC. Good news--Coleman has pulled even with Franken in MN and McConnell’s lead in KY is narrow but real. My real fear here is that the dominant party tends to win all the close ones in a really decisive year.
Update: The OH polls are wildly inconsistent, but the very newest one, posted in the last hour by Rasmussen, has McCain up by 1. And the same pollster has McCain up by 2 in FL and only down 3 in NC.
So the one needful state that still looks really bad with consistency in VA. The actaul data aren’t as bad as what almost everyone, including me most of the time, expect.
Which polls? Some have McCain up 1-2 points in Ohio. I think the race will continue to tighten in the coming two weeks. I am not here to predict or cheerlead a McCain victory but, objectively speaking, I just think it's too hard to call it right now. But I will go out on a limb and predict that Ohio go for McCain. This, for example, is not an insignificant endorsement.
It seems to me that in year that leans strongly to one party, the party with the headwind gets all but one of the closely contested Senate seats. In 2006 the Democrats picked up every close Senate seat but the one in Tennesee. The McConnell race really worries me. He is a tough,solid, competent, and influential conservative in a GOP leaning state. If he loses, its going to set off shockwaves in the GOP and probably not to the good. Look for voices arguing to save the Republican party via a shift to the left on social issues. Republicans arguing for a leftward shift will not lack for media platforms. Following their advice would of course be a calamity.
On McCain, my brain tells me that he is done, that it would take a very unlikely series of events in a very short time, all breaking his way for McCain to overcome all of Obama's advantages. I believe in miracles but I don't expect them. But the polls are close enough that I can't quite put this race into the Dole 1996 "its already over" mode. Its like the character in a story I once read who said, "Its not the despair. I can handle despair. Its the hope thats killing me."
Dole seems to be falling further behind in NC
I recently moved from the Charlotte area. The illegal alien invasion is huge in NC, as it is a popular destination of these folks. Dole clearly "jumped on the bandwagon" late in the game - Most felt like her heart was with the Rockefeller's. If I had been in the state, I would not vote for her simply due to her support of the Prescription Drug Giveaway. She comes across as a classic elitist Republican, liberal in truth and when she can politically get away with it. I did not sense much grass roots support for her. I don't think NC will miss her much...
I also lived in Louisville for 8 years. I am more surprised by McConnell, and I wonder if the polls are not skewed to the left here quite a bit...
This, for example, is not an insignificant endorsement.
True. But Powell's endorsement of Obama isn't insignificant either. Who doesn't like that guy (other than McCain, today)?
Things are certainly looking bad and it's not clear to me at this late stage of the game what could make for a dramatic turnaround....it's a shame more attnetion hasn't been turned to Biden's constant stream of breathtakingly stupid comments but that probably wouldn't do it anyway...
Rasmussan now has McCain in the lead, just barely, in about 5 key states, which includes OH.
All polls bias towards Democrats. The trick is getting to those that will actually vote and that can be very unscientific.
Why in the world does it takes several times to post on this site?
PETER, nobody, after reviewing your commentary throughout this lengthy campaign, is likely to confuse you for the "bluebird of happiness."
McConnell can go for all I care. He was a key advocate for illegal immigration, one of the big issues that has demoralized conservatives this year. And that's the GOP's problem: even when the economy was going gangbusters, the folks in the bottom half weren't seeing the benefits. They were getting squeezed on the income side by competition with illegals, getting squeezed on the cost side by either more expensive housing (for buyers) or neighborhoods looking increasingly like Tijuana (for owners). Free market capitalism will never get support under such circumstances. These people - the blue collar, mostly white, conservatives - never wanted handouts. They believed in the GOP because it (supposedly) advocated rewarding hard work, responsible living, wise choices, and playing by the rules. The GOP elite pretty much demonstrated their contempt for that when it was to their financial benefit. And how's that "we're gunna make Hispanics Republican" thing going, anyway?
According to a headline on Drudge, Obama leads in a Nickelodeon poll of kids 51-49. Will this ever end?
As far as I know, Rasmussen is a pretty accurate poll. Even the guy at fivethirtyeight.com, who leans DEM himself, says it's the one poll he'd want on a desert island with him (I bet this guy is a riot to be with).
McConnell can go for all I care.
I had forgotten his role in that. I wonder how far the GOP is going to have to implode before the Rockefellers are put in their place?
My guess is that a 3rd (conservative) party is just about as likely...