Well, like everyone else I’m watching the weekend unfold, and grasping at straws showing McCain supposedly surging. I can’t tell. But there are two things to keep your eyes on as the votes are counted Tuesday night. The prospective election of Obama is touted as a sign of the end of the Age of Reagan (Patent Pending), and the beginning of the Europeanization of America. Maybe. But watch Massachusetts, where a ballot measure to repeal the state income tax might pass, and California where Proposition 8 would repeal gay marriage. Polls show both are going to be close calls.
If these two measures pass--in the two most liberal states in the nation--it will be a sign that the country is still a cognitively dissonant, center-right nation. And that will be a problem for Obama.
A very interesting factoid I heard tossed about on talk radio but, as of yet, I have not had a chance to verify with independent research: the single most solid block of voters skipping to the polls to vote YES on Proposition 8 in California is . . . African Americans. As well they should. Republicans should stand up and take very serious notice of this fact.
Some Republicans are jumping ship, however.
What Steve takes as one cause for optimism I see as a further sign of decay: An issue like same-sex marriage shouldn't even be close. It wouldn't have even arisen in a serious way 10 years ago.
Re Julie's comment above: On the earlier anti-same sex marriage initiative that passed back in 2000, Latinos were a leading force in opposition. But they aren't single-issue voters.