If I had to bet, I think that the Democrats will find enough votes in the House of Representatives to pass the Senate version of Obamacare. I suspect that status rewards will play a role in the switches. I was thinking presidential appointments, academic sinecures, and awards ceremonies. Matthew Yglesias suggests another status reward. House members who vote no and lose reelection as a result will be remembered as Heroes of the Revolution and lauded by liberal historians in 2060.
So lets break this down. Why might these no votes be inclined to vote against Obamacare? I can think of two major reasons. First, because they might object to Obamacare on the merits of the policy. Second, because they respect (or fear) the perceived wishes of their constituents who oppose Obamacare. How many members of the House of Representatives would be willing to put aside their substantive objections and/or the will of their constituents not for rewards in this world, but in the hopes of gaining a posthumous favorable mention from some liberal-leaning historian? My first guess is too many.