Barone on the Gallup Poll
Posted in Elections by Julie Ponzi
Picking up on
Peter's post yesterday on the astonishing Gallup poll results for President Obama, I note
Michael Barone's analysis today of the generic Congressional ballot poll. Key graph:
These
two numbers, if translated into popular votes in the 435 congressional
districts, suggest huge gains for Republicans and a Republican House
majority the likes of which we have not seen since the election cycles
of 1946 or even 1928. For months, people have been asking me if this
year looks like '94. My response is that the poll numbers suggest it
looks like 1994, when Republicans gained 52 seats in a House of 435
seats. Or perhaps somewhat better for Republicans and worse for
Democrats. The Gallup high turnout and low turnout numbers suggest it
looks like 1894, when Republicans gained more than 100 seats in a House
of approximately 350 seats.
1:30 PM / October 5, 2010
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That will be a happy day, but I'm uncomfortable with all the hype. Overconfidence is a real concern. And how will the Tea Party split tickets around the country? I'd bite my nails if I had any left to bite.