Posted in Elections by Steven Hayward
The only surprise last night was that there were no surprises (as I had expected), with the exception of Harry Reid, whom I expected to lose. But I always wondered about the polls in Nevada; because of the transience of the population and the unknowability of who is still there after the housing and employment meltdown, it was always going to be hard to predict who would be around the vote on election day. But as I said on the Podcast the other day, Harry Reid and the nominally Democratic Senate is going to be a liability for Obama.
Overall, Republicans slightly underperformed what the Gallup and other "generic" numbers might have forecast, which suggests that curve on the generic ballot preference number is logarithmic, or something. Even allowing for weak candidates in Nevada and Delaware, the GOP should have won the tight races in Colorado (uncertain at this moment it appears) and Washington (looks like Rossi loses narrowly again). The left coast really does appear to be a hopeless region now.
9:28 AM / November 3, 2010
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