Oh come on, a district that has only elected 3 democrats since 1857 isn't exactly "republican-leaning." That's about as solidly republican as you can get.

The Republicans won NY-26 by 4% in 2006 and that was without a phony "Tea Party" candidate in the race nor any fiascos with taping your opponent. In recent history at the House level, NY-26 is about as Republican as NY-23 (another NY special election fiasco) which is now represented by a Democrat. The Republican defeat in NY-23 was not followed by Republican defeats in most of the rest of the country. There are lessons to be learned from both elections (and somewhat different lessons from each), but let's but let's keep some perspective given the recent history of New York state special House elections.

I hope you aren't just whistling past the graveyard, Pete. Seems to me the GOP is moving a little too fast in reforming these "third rail" entitlements. Very true, they desperately need reform, but shouldn't we wait until we have more legislative strength? There are other ways we could satisfy the Tea Party short of scaring the wits out of the old folks. I'm thinking we really need to control the White House before we can really (successfully) reform Medicare and Social Security.

We really need to understand that the broad "middle" of the country is fickle and in many ways spoiled. They want fiscal constraint and no new taxes, but they also want their entitlements. Really saving the country will require finesse and delicate political timing. I wish that weren't the case. I wish that forthright policy and political courage were enough, but they aren't.

I'm not generalizing a win or loss to republicans across the country. I'm simply taking issue with your characterization of this particular county's political history. Oh, and the republican had her hat handed to her. Let the rationalizing begin!

It was Hochul 47% (D), Coriwn 43% (R), and Davis 9% ("Tea Party"). The "Tea Party" candidate ran for the seat three times as a center-left Democrat who praised Nancy Pelosi. His forth goaround at the seat, he (Davis) ran as the "Tea Party" candidate and the Republican who lost the primary pouted a bit then endorsed Davis and brought some of his supporters with him. I see this as neither a referendum on the Ryan Budget nor a big win for Democrats; if anything, it's a lesson on how destructive infighting can be to a party (not just Republicans, although with the rise of the Tea Party they will probably be contending with issues like this in the near future more often than Democrats).

Redwald, I don't think it makes any kind of political sense (and it would be unjust) for the Republicans to not try to win on the entitlement issue and then throw the country an entitlement cut surprise party. This is especially tough since any responsible fiscal consolidation is best phased in. You are right about the public's ambiguous feelings. Since we are talking trillions upon trillions of dollars of spending cuts and/or tax increases, I can't say I blame the public.

seriously, The Republicans lost two upstate New York House districts with remarkably similar voting profiles (at the level of House of Reps. voting over the last decade.) The two special elections were separated by 18 months and a Republican wave election. Given this recent experience, I'm not willing to call any NY House district solidly Republican in a special election.