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Foreign Affairs

The Return of German Gunboat Diplomacy?

Hardly noticed by the American public, two weeks ago a Thai airplane was impounded in Munich by German authorities. Not just any airplane, but the airplane belonging to the crown prince of Thailand, Maha Vajiralongkorn. Why would Germany do such a brutish thing?

German officials claim that the airplane was seized in accordance with German law as collateral for bills never paid by the Thai government. More than twenty years ago a German company, now bankrupt, built a highway in Thailand and was never paid in full. The company's liquidator convinced a German court to issue a judgment allowing him to seize the Being 737, worth about 20 million Euros.

This caused a furious reaction by the Thai government. In Thailand, the royal family is highly revered and never critically discussed in public. In fact, the royal family is never discussed at all. The disgrace the German government has brought on the crown prince is therefore a matter of national honor. The Thai foreign minister, Kasit Piromya, was immediately dispatched to discuss this issue with his German counterpart, but only after calling the German government's actions "a serious mistake."

During the past week, it seemed at first that the Thai government would pony up the money while the German courts would simultaneously declare that the airplane belongs to the crown prince personally rather than the state of Thailand. This would then imply that the airplane had been falsely seized.  However, this face-saving solution fell apart yesterday and now a long legal battle in the German courts might ensue, leaving the crown prince stranded in Germany.

At first, this entire episode might fall into the category of "clumsy foreign policy," along the lines of the blocking abstaining supporting of UNSCR 1973 and the ensuing NATO mission. Why else would Germany risk its traditionally good relationship with Thailand?

One possibility is that Germany is not at all jeopardizing its relationship with Thailand but rather continuing it. Instead, Germany might be supporting the democratic process in Thailand. On July 3, 2011, the former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra's party, headed by his sister Yinluck, won the parliamentary elections with an absolute majority. This came after five years of political unrest in Thailand. Five years ago, Thaksin was forced out of office by the military. Three years ago, Thaksin's party had also won the elections but his opponents used every trick, fair and foul, to invalidate the elections and assume power instead. Now, the current electoral results are still not certified and might not be until August 2. Especially the election of Yinluck to parliament has not been confirmed. The crown prince is a key player opposing Thaksin and his party. It is therefore possible that the German government, by encouraging the liquidator to pursue this legal route, is neutralizing the crown prince and putting gentle pressure on the Thai government to confirm the electoral results and abstain from replaying the game from 2008.

Maybe this gives the German government too much credit and an ingenious liquidator really has caught the German government flat-footed turning Franz Josef Strauss airport into the new wild west of debt collection. This would not bode well for Greece. But I like to believe that sometimes things are not as they seem, which in this case would include German diplomacy full of finesse.

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