An article in the Washington Post today suggests that there is not a coherent national issue driving voters this term. Rather, voters are concerned about numerous issues, including the economy, terrorism, and the possible war with Iraq. This really isnt news. What is interesting, however, is reading the quotes from voters they interviewed, which suggested a low-level of voter enthusiasm. This is confirmed by Republican pollster Ed Goeas, who notes that polls show only around 65% of registered voters saying that they are "extremely likely" to vote, compared with the normal level of the high 70s for this time of the election year.
All this points to low voter turnout, and that means that it is anyones game. When there is low voter turnout, a highly mobilized constituency can be the difference in key elections. The push for the parties will then be get-out-the-vote activities. Look for heavy union activities in the days leading into elections, including perhaps a repeat of the practice of giving union members election day off to vote.