This from a reader:
Except for one or two nights, I have been VERY optimistic about this election outcome. I think (and always have thought) Bush will get about 320 EVs, winning WI, NM, IA, possibly either MN or NJ. Right now we have a quesitonable poll out of Detroit giving him a 4-point lead in MI, too. PA is not out of reach.
However, what I find interesting is the near-unanimous view that Kerry was dead until the first debate ("Bush blew it"). Here is a kook scenario that may not be so kookie after all:
*Rove/Bush did not know "which" John Kerry would show up for debate #1. They still did not know what Iraq policy he would try to take. Therefore, I don’t think they prepared, somewhat deliberately. Why bother?
*But, there is, IMHO, a more important dynamic going on. (To "buy" this you have to remember Rush’s comment that Bush is not out just to win, but to destroy the Dem Party as we know it). Bush knew he was NEVER going to knock out Kerry in one debate, despite the hype. However, if he damaged him too badly in that debate, the DNC and 527s were all ready to start drawing money away from him and focusing on re-taking the senate. Given the short-sightedness of Republicans in NV, WA, IL, AR, AK, and CA in putting up weak candidates, they had a great chance. I believe Bush/Rove saw this as a real threat. How to keep Kerry "in the game" and keep the money at the "Kerry table?"
*The answer is, let him (and the media) think he won. Now, that’s damn risky, but W has always been a gambler. Running "against" pro-war Dem senators in 2002 was an incredible risk, and it paid off in every single case.
*Now all the national polls have Bush back up, and most of the state polls, including OH and FL, have Bush scratching back into a lead. (I think, based on Jay Cost’s analysis at "The Horserace," these polls seriously undercount GOP strength, esp. in the battleground states, too).
Finally, today we have Maureen Down saying that the Dems are depressed and Julianne Malveaux admitting blacks ain’t gonna come out for Francois. I have thought for two weeks that the election is over, and that the internals of both camps knew it. So what is Francois doing? He’s playing to the base, the base, the base. This late in the game, he’s trying to rally the base. Why? Because She-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named has given him the word that he must NOT have a 350 EV meltdown, lest it split the party, and She . . . needs a party upon which to run in 2008. I think the Dems KNOW they are in danger of a Whig-type collapse.
Interesting theory but it is a bit too clever by a half. Come on, this is really high stakes stuff. I can’t imagine intentionally blowing the first debate to keep Kerry in it. This isn’t my cat playing with a mouse, this is an important presidential election.
I still think blacks will vote in droves for Kerry because that is what black voters have done in the past and will continue to do in the future (to their detriment and to the detriment of the country- it is important that black voters not vote as a monolith for many many reasons). I would be nice if Julianne Malveaux was correct but I still wouldn’t bet against it. Interestingly, I wonder what the poll numbers are for black support of the War on Terror, that might be a factor for increase in support for Bush.
With that said, I think it is hard for an incumbent to lose a presidential election. I think it is also hard when the Presidential approval ratings are around 50%, which I believe they are over that number or at least close to it. It is also hard for a sitting senator to win a presidential election. It is also hard for a Massachusett’s liberal senator to win a national election.
Now some might say that George H.W. Bush lost his re-election bid but he ran against two pretty good candidates and the Cold War just ended (I even thought about voting for crazy Ross). Jimmy Carter lost because he was Jimmy Carter it was 1980 (’nuff said-I don’t have to explain that one to people). Also, there was this guy named Ronald Reagan.
Some might drag the recent ALCS into the picture and say that the Red Sox beat history and won the series against the Yankees. My response is anything can happen and I believe Kerry isn’t a very good candidate.
There is a sizable amount of people who really hate George Bush. I really don’t think hatred alone can win an election. Nixon absolutely destroyed McGovern in 1972 and he was not well loved. Reagan was also hated very very much by the left and he waxed Mondale in 1984.
Most importantly, the most important thing is George Bush has the best policies. Period. His foreign policy is infinitely better than Kerry’s unknown and unarticulated plan. His economic policies are better. His tax policy is better. His domestic policies are better.
Wild post! I don’t know though...Is it just posturing or should we be very worried that the DNC Chair is calling for a Kerry victory (check out the story at Town Hall)? Also, I’m worried the President has given up Ohio? Is this the case?
...Is it just posturing or should we be very worried that the DNC Chair is calling for a Kerry victory (check out the story at Town Hall)?
Why on earth should we be at all surprised that the DNC Chair is calling for a Kerry victory? I suspect I’m misunderstanding something here, but didn’t see anything about this at the Town Hall main page. Winston, would you mind providing us with a link?
Okay, what is IMHO?
Sorry...
The article title: Kerry Will Win; We’ll Know by Midnight, DNC Chairman Says
The link: https://www.townhall.com/news/politics/200410/POL20041022c.shtml
IMHO - In my humble opinion
Is this normaal? Kerry so confident he’s naming his administration?
https://www.newsmax.com/archives/ic/2004/10/22/110121.shtml
How about this book from Amazon...
Election 2004: How Bush/kerry Won…
https://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/1586482939/qid=1098457358/sr=1-5/ref=sr_1_5/104-9806727-0232701?v=glance&s=books
"Dewey Defeats Truman"
The polling data in Ohio troubles me? Plus the President is in Crawford this weekend? Shouldn’t he be camping in OHIO!!!!
Holy crow, what a theory!
Would we ever find out if it was true? I’d bet Morris would write a book about it two years into Bush’s second term.
I’m willing to bet that She-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named is driving the party for a Kerry failure, as that is the only thing that could propel her into the Catbird Seat.
Then, Bubba could be V.P.! :@)