It’s very interesting that the polls are showing these kind of developments now. A 7 point difference?! I guess the pollsters don’t want to look as ridiculous as they would certainly look predicting a 24% gap between Blackwell and Strickland (as was the average gap shown on RCP as late as yesterday). Now we see something more like the real numbers--the real numbers that have probably been there all along. Either that, or Blackwell has had a MAJOR jump in the last couple days. Which is explained by what? Blackwell certainly should get a boost as undecideds begin to decide. But that doesn’t account for 17 points! So my guess is that the race is even tighter than this poll shows. Michael Barone is right about the polls this election season . . . they have probably never been so utterly useless.
As far as I can tell, recent Zogby numbers have been more favorable for Blackwell than those of other polls, so I’m not sure that Blackwell supporters should get their hopes up. And undecideds will probably break against the incumbent party. But we’ll find out soon enough. For the record, I’ll take a wild guess and predict a Strickland win by 10 - 12 percentage points.
How come people only believe the polls when they confirm what they think is true? Why is the 17% jump more accurate?
I think Brett is nailing the prediction--if it’s close. Zogby is very unreliable in polling. However, I still can’t bring myself to buy a 24 point landslide either???
Julie - I know your not in Ohio right now, so I understand your view that the race might actually be closer...
But, it’s not and it hasn’t been. Many Ohio Republicans don’t like him. Not one Independent that I have spoken with likes him and the Dems absolutely despise him for his antics in the ’04 election.
He has run a horrible campaign, his "Hail Nambla" in the debates was just an embarassment for Ohioans... He has become a caricture and a punch line. He’s a drag on the Republicans’ ticket.
He isn’t even this great conservative that you all think he is. His office’s expenditures increased by something like 73% under his watch. He’s an opportunist and he fooled you.