Based upon my conversations over the last couple of days more than any scientific survey (the studies really disagree right now anyway), I still say this will be a very Democratic day. The main issue is Iraq. (The secondary issue is do-nothing complacency and corruption; as Fred Barnes points out the Republicans easily could have done more to get people’s minds of the war.) Lots of Reagan Democrats and ordinary conservatives are voting Democratic for the first time in a while. They think the war wasn’t necessary, it’s been conducted incompetently, and there’s no realistic plan about what to do now. I’ve repeatedly heard the claim that the Iraq war has more compromised than enhanced our security. Nobody much is saying the Democrats have a plan or could do better; it’s more that the administration needs the wake-up call. I’m not evaluating these claims today, although obviously a vote that will comfort our enemies and make the president’s tough job of adjusting the course more difficult isn’t the remedy I recommend to those who make them. But there’s no doubt in my mind that we will feel their strength today in the House elections. It’s good to remember that lots of people voting Democratic today agree more with the Republicans on most issues.