Strengthening Constitutional Self-Government

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McCain and Clinton (?) win New Hampshire

After the Obamamania of the past week, I guess I’m just a little surprised that the Democratic race is, at the moment (10 p.m.) too close to call. Even if Obama pulls ahead, this will be a "moral victory" for the Clinton camp. And if she wins--Michael Barone says that’s a real possibility, and she’s outpacing the exit polls--the argument will be that, when it comes to a real election, she’s a--nay, the--winner.

Here are the numbers I’ve been watching, and here are the Democratic and Republican exit polls.

In the polls, McCain beats Romney pretty much everywhere, except among the elderly (!!), the "very conservative" (where even Huckabee beats him), very frequent church attenders (Huckabee territory), and casual Catholics (also Giuliani’s best group). With the electorate cut up this way, Huckabee’s presence clearly hurt Romney. If you look at economic issues, however, Huckabee might have cost McCain a few votes.

On the Democratic side, Obama’s strength was with younger, better educated voters (and men), while HRC did well with women and less affluent voters. Independents went for Obama, while registered Democrats went for Clinton.

Now (roughly 10:30), NBC and AP are calling N.H. for Clinton, though Fox, ABC, and CNN haven’t yet. I’m betting that call will hold, so the Obama bandwagon won’t be quite as full tomorrow as it was earlier today. The question to be asked now: whither the African-American vote? And perhaps: whither the Edwards vote? (In N.H., the Edwards voters seem to have liked Obama a little better than Clinton.)

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