Strengthening Constitutional Self-Government

No Left Turns

Polls Show

I just gave a quick glance to the latest studies: CNN has McCain up 13 naationwide. Meanwhile, McCain appears to have narrow leads in both Michigan and South Carolina and is up 8 in Florida. Huck, for the record, is up 13 in Georgia, where even a couple of months ago Giuliani and Thompson were both very strong. If McCain wins in Michigan and behaves himself reasonably well thereafter, it’s hard to see how he’s stopped. I think Thompson’s SC and Rudy’s FL strategies are pretty far-fetched; they’re certainly not supported by the polling at this point. But I hasten to add that Huck is competitive in all states mentioned. Romney’s doing better than someone might think in SC, and if he manages to win in Michigan...

Discussions - 11 Comments

If Rudy's and Fred's strategy don't make sense now, what will they look like if McCain wins Michigan or even if he wins South Carolina.

Talk radio hosts are going to unload on McCain Monday. Rush went after him today, but with these numbers, they'll be panic on the air come Monday.

Rush despises McCain, as does Levin. And Ingraham and Hannity aren't too keen on him either.

I think Fred and Rudy too for that matter, have to run ads simply stating DON'T LET IOWA AND NEW HAMPSHIRE narrow your options. DON'T LET THEM DICTATE for you who the Republican nominee will be. For that's what happening.

You know, there were reasons that Romney dropped everything he had into Iowa and New Hampshire. And there were reasons that NOBODY has tried Rudy's strategy, and pulled it out.

I'm getting real nervous about a few things:

1} Rudy's Florida strategy;

2} McCain closing in on the nomination; and

3} How the Dallas Cowboys offense is going to perform on Sunday afternoon.

McCain has a history in both Michigan and South Carolina. His history in South Carolina limits his maximum. Even if McCain wins Michigan Huck has a good shot of winning here.

Amnesty should disqualify McCain. Do GOP voters really have that short of memories?

Exactly Red. Were the GOP to go with McCain, it ensures that immigration will be effectively off the table. How can the GOP criticize the Dems on immigration, when our nominee was THE guy whose name was on that obnoxious bill.

Can you imagine too the frustration of those for whom immigration is the most important issue. There will be nowhere for them to turn. They'll not be able to vote Democrat because the Democrats rightly see immigration "reform" as guaranteeing them decades of uninterrupted majority status. And they'll not be able to vote for the Republican because McCain is simply lying to them on the issue. He doesn't "get it;" in reality, he's a hammerhead about it. And to top it all off, voters have a Republican, he of "The Straight Talk Express," who can't even square with them by admitting that yes, the amnesty bill WAS an amnesty bill.

And there's something else to ponder. IF McCain is the nominee, who would put it past Bush and McCain to try to bring back the immigration bill during the Summer. Bush got some weird idea about himself that he was the Hispanic version of the Great Emancipator. Republican opposition would be throttled. Because they'll be panicked about opposing it and thus opposing their own nominee, especially on the verge of a presidential election. The media will once again brand all opponents as closeted bigots. And if Republicans were leery of opposing it last time, which of us thinks they'll find any additional courage if McCain is the nominee. McCain will be able to strongarm opposition.

It seems a good number of Republicans got real nervous when Dobson started firing off threats about Giuliani, when it was clear that Giuliani was the strongest candidate of the field.

And think too how a McCain nomination affects Lindsay Graham, his obnoxious sidekick, the guy who said "we're going to tell the bigots to shut up," and had the temerity to say that before a group known as "The Race," {La Raza}. So instead of our party polishing off Graham in a primary battle, we're going to give him fresh life, all because we're picking McCain. And wasn't Graham with McCain on the Gang of 14 deal too?

McCain's nomination represents a political catastrophe of the absolute first order.

And we've barely begun to get our minds around the full scope of that catastrophe. We could easily be looking at a 3d party attempt. Immigration cuts across party lines and motivates people like nothing we've seen in our lifetime. It's THE domestic issue of our time. And McCain isn't simply wrong on it, he's insultingly wrong on it.

I would much prefer Huckabee to McCain. Huckabee might be ignorant on a good number of issues, but ignorance can be addressed. Huckabee is open to instruction. McCain however is a hammerhead, and what's worse, a hammerhead with a political messiah complex.

It might be time to throw support to Huckabee. It's safer right now to pick a non-establishment candidate than an establishment one. A pick from outside of Washington is usually safer than one from inside the Beltway.

Hey Peter, thanks for the poll update. That debate the other night will probably throw a wrench into things too since Thompson performed very well. I'm not so sure about McCain being unstoppable though, check out the delegate math. We're going to have chaos on our hands following Feb. 5.

Keep up the great posts!

JX

It seems a good number of Republicans got real nervous when Dobson started firing off threats about Giuliani, when it was clear that Giuliani was the strongest candidate of the field.

Dan, I think you're a smart guy and that you make a lot of insightful comments. But your attraction to Giuliani baffles me. Giuliani has all of McCains bad points and several others that McCain does not have. Among many other things, he is every bit as bad on immigration as McCain is. If you want the Dems to win 62 Senate seats and 400 EV's, just make Giuliani the GOP nominee.

He is on the wrong side of just about every issue Republicans care about, including guns, immigration, free speech, abortion, and size of government. He is widely disliked by independents. He has no natural constituency outside of wealthy Manhattanites.

It's as Gingrich said John, during our considerations of what we should be looking for in a candidate, we must also consider what it takes to actually manage and to govern.

Here's an example, Hurricane Katrina. Now Bush's response was pretty lame. AND the response of the executive branch he oversaw was also lame. And our party paid a price for that incompetence. And rest assured, the Dems are going to remind the nation of that incompetence.

That's why I'm against a Thompson candidacy. Sure, he's conservative. But he's no executive experience. And that experience is an essential for The White House. McCain too has no real executive experience, and him saying his time spent as a squadron commander suffices just tells us how little experience he actually has.

Giuliani has a record of overseeing Democrat controlled organizations in NYC, and making them work towards conservative ends. Now compare what he did to what Bush is doing now. Bush's DOJ JUST FILED a brief that argues that the position of gun control activists is the accurate one.

Hardly a week goes bye anymore without Bush proving how profoundly unsuited he ever was for The White House.

Is anybody on the Seattle Seahawks going to catch a pass today? Just kind of curious. Hasselbeck puts the ball on the money repeatedly, and when his receivers don't actually cop out on the route, they decide to drop the ball when it hits them in the hands. Unbelievable. Unbelievable.

during our considerations of what we should be looking for in a candidate, we must also consider what it takes to actually manage and to govern.

Don't you think the slight detail of HOW a candidate would govern matters? Assuming for the sake of argument that Rudy is some sort of brilliant manager, does the fact that he is on the wrong side on just about every issue not count for anything?

I don't see how you can hit McCain on the immigration question, and then turn around and support Rudy on the grounds that he will manage a McCain-like immigration policy with great efficiency.

But I now better by now than to think that you'll respond.

Can you imagine too the frustration of those for whom immigration is the most important issue. There will be nowhere for them to turn. They'll not be able to vote Democrat because the Democrats rightly see immigration "reform" as guaranteeing them decades of uninterrupted majority status. And they'll not be able to vote for the Republican because McCain is simply lying to them on the issue.


All very true. But how will they be happier if you substitute Giuliani for McCain? There seems to be something missing in your chain of thought.

Leave a Comment

* denotes a required field
 

No TrackBacks
TrackBack URL: http://nlt.ashbrook.org/movabletype/mt-tb.cgi/11749