Michael Barone writes that Obama’s slim lead seems to be dissipating in the wake of his much hyped world tour. There was a slight increase in his numbers at the peak of that tour but, in the days following it, one poll (the Gallup/USA Today poll of so-called "likely voters") McCain even had a slight lead. As Barone explains, this particular poll is considered less a true reflection of where the race stands than an accurate measurement of the direction in which enthusiasm is trending.
If that is all true then Obama’s balloon may not be on the verge of bursting, exactly, but it may be slowly deflating like a forgotten Mylar Birthday balloon left in the corner long after the flowers have lost their bloom. Still, McCain’s strategy probably should not be one of waiting it out. Pins in a deflating Mylar balloon will not cause it to "pop" but they certainly can speed things up. Here’s hoping McCain will use sharper pins than Britney and Paris.
PETER said the other day that Obama would not "blow it;" and when Peter wrote that, Obama was in the midst of roughly a 20 point swing in 40 days, bleeding off a point every two days.
The American electorate is increasingly media savvy, and they're slowly coming to see there's no there, there, with the false and fraudulent messiah.
The European tour only confirmed for an increasingly suspicious public that Obama is a creation of the media.
We might look back after the general and well conclude that his big tour, designed to adorn him with the garb of statesmanship, was really his jump the shark moment.
Obama is in trouble, and it's likely that his Convention will be more of the same. If you think about it, this guy has been on a very slightly sloping descent ever since Super Tuesday.
Which of us believes that had the Dems real prior knowledge of Wright, that they would have gone ahead and selected Obama.
I have a hunch that the Dems who supported Hillary in the primaries--disproportionately white, female, and middle-aged or older--are going to be a huge factor in this election.
If I were such a person, I suspect I'd have little problem with thinking, "McCain in there for one term with a safely Democratic House and Senate really can't do much damage, and then we can elevate Hillary in 2012. By contrast, Obama for two terms means she is done. So why not Johnny Mac over the Great Interloper?" In short, I would not underrate the resentment these people are still nursing over Barry's having "popp'd between th'election and [Hillary's] hopes."
If McCain picks a female VP candidate, I suspect he will only help himself (at least a bit) with these voters, even if she's well to their right (as surely Sarah Palin or any ohter conceivable GOP nominee of course will be).
The choice of a VP is not decisive for a ticket, but the choice matrix will be unusually interesting this year because Obama virtually HAS TO pick a boring white guy (can Lloyd Bentsen be brought out of cryonic storage in time for Denver?), while McCain virtually HAS TO pick somebody who is not a member of the Pale Penis People fraternity. Therefore McCain will have the more buzz-worthy and exciting VP story: advantage McCain (not a decisive advantage, but an advantage).
If this trend continues, stand by everybody, as the REAL reason is given to us by the media: America is just too racist to elect a black man president, and an Obama defeat would be the mark of shame that proves it.
Well DANTE, we all know we're going to be dragged down that path by the media if the false and fraudulent messiah goes down to defeat come Novemember.
That's a date certain on the calender.
Did you get an earful of David Gergen, saying McCain's ad was code, and that the REAL message was Obama is too "uppity." Unbelievable. But then again, from him, VERY believable, for he was the guy that tagged Zell Miller's sensational speech in '04 as one of "anger," and an "anger" that he saw long ago in Southern politics. Meaning, freighted with racism. But hey, no better way to keep your face on hte boob-tube than repeating what the media desires to hear, and desires to communicate to a passive viewing audience.
There's something so damn infuriating and saddening in seeing so many ostensibly educated men and women, incapable, utterly incapable of analyzing any issue outside of the prism of race/class/gender.