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The November Zeitgeist

A month is an eternity in political terms, admittedly - but we can get a pretty good sense of the mood and environment of the country come November from our present perch.

Economics will rule the day, and the draught is not likely to have improved. The final job numbers prior to the election have been released, and unemployment remains at 9.6%. America shed another 95,000 jobs during the past quarter. Without doubt, that's the most damning news for Democrats, who, after a trillion dollars in stimulus spending, now own the economy. (Government spending rose 9% last year, totaling a $1.3 trillion deficit - down from 2009, but second-largest on record.)

The tomfoolery on freezing foreclosures (merely exacerbating an open wound and prolonging the housing market collapse) and Obama's veto of a bipartisan bill to fix the problem merely lend to the sense of incoherence, impotence and desperation emanating from Washington. The market was not likely to pick up by November - now it is certain not to do so.

Obamacare will remain a public annoyance, as court cases keep the issue before the electorate. Should the law be struck down before November, it will render another blow to Democrats.

Nothing will likely happen in Iraq or Afghanistan to arouse public sentiment, nor are any motivating social issues likely to appear. November will be here before you know it, and the nation will only be a month older and a margin madder by then. All the bets have been made - now it's just time for everyone to show their hands.

Categories > Elections

Discussions - 3 Comments

The tomfoolery on freezing foreclosures (merely exacerbating an open wound and prolonging the housing market collapse)

The tomfoolery was an initiative of trial judges, not the administration. Housing prices are not 'collapsing'. They stabilized more than a year ago (per the Case-Shiller 20 city index).

AD is right, they are actually on a small uptick. Housing prices are reinflating before jobs. DRN and most housing ETFs are up nicely on the year. (these inflate before housing itself, tied to the stock market but with positive alpha relative to it)

My Fearless prediction republicans pick up the house by a huge margin and split the Senate 50-50.

DRN Jan 4, 2010- 34.995
DRN Oct 7, 2010- 51.65

URE Jan 4, 2010- 34.25
URE Oct 8, 2010-47

DRN does better because it is triple leveraged, while URE is double leveraged.

The funiest name for a real estate investment is Chimera Investment stock ticker CIM, it offers a 17.6% yield.

You know things aren't looking good for the economy when stocks are paying yields like that and the 10 year treasury is paying 2.5%.

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