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Gallup Poll: Bush 52%, Kerry 45%

The USA Today/CNN/Gallup Poll has just been published. This is the USA Today story about the poll, and this is the poll. The poll was taken Friday through Sunday, shows Bush at 52%, Kerry at 45% and independent candidate Ralph Nader at 1% among likely voters. Before the convention, Bush led Kerry by 2 percentage in the same poll (Aug 23-25).

A few notable details: Bush’s approval rating is at 52%; it was 49% in the last Gallup poll. 59% said Bush has the personality and leadership qualities to be president, 51% for Kerry. 61% said Bush would handle questions of terrorism better, 34% for Kerry (last month Bush was leading this by only 10 points). 60% said Bush is the strong and decisive leader, while 32% said Kerry was.

The USA Today article concludes: "Bush received a modest bounce from his party’s convention, while Kerry’s standing sagged in the USA TODAY poll after the Democratic convention. The president is driving both sides of the ballot: eight of 10 of his supporters say they are voting for Bush; half of Kerry voters say they are voting against Bush."

Rasmussen reports that "In the sixteen-Battleground States that are likely to determine the winner of Election 2004, President Bush now leads Senator Kerry 48% to 45%.

A week ago, before the Republican National Convention, Kerry was ahead, 47% to 45%. In fact, Kerry has been ahead in the 16-Battleground States for most of the year."

Rasmussen also reports this: "-Fifty-two percent (52%) of Americans now believe that President Bush and Vice-President Dick Cheney will be re-elected this November. A Rasmussen Reports survey found that just 38% expect the Democratic ticket of John Kerry and John Edwards to emerge victorious.

Those numbers reflect a big change from the last time we asked the question. Following the Democratic Convention, data released to Premium Members showed that 47% of voters expected Kerry to win while 43% took the opposite view." In short, the post convention bounce is beginning to shape up.

Discussions - 4 Comments

Bush may be ahead, but if you look at those who are voting for Kerry, 55 percent say that their vote for Kerry is really more of a vote against Bush. Also, if you look at the rest of the poll, you’ll see that there are a large number of "Swing" voters, or voters that are not quite sure, to be exact, 12 percent. That is enough to swing the election easily in Kerry’s favor.

if you look at those who are voting for Kerry, 55 percent say that their vote for Kerry is really more of a vote against Bush.

How, exactly, does this count as good news for Kerry? Doesn’t it suggest that they aren’t particularly enthusiastic about their candidate?

Hatred of a candidate is not enough to win an election, the other side needs to have a viable alternative. Up to this point Kerry is not showing his viability.

We are in the bottom of the 6th inning and it is getting late.

I never said that it was good news for Kerry, just that it is bad news for Bush...I mean, if people are willing to vote Kerry rather than cast their vote for Bush....

Bush is in danger of losing to a bad canidate.

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