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No Left Turns

Kerry decline, a note

This is the CNN story on the shake-up. "It could be too late," one Democrat is quoted as saying. Not everyone quoted agrees, but you don’t have to be an overly careful reader of texts to know that the situation is critical. Donors and elected officials are asking too many questions, are raising too many concerns. Perhaps that explains why Senator Daschle’s campaign is running ads showing him with President Bush. Thune has 50% while Daschle has 48% in the latest polls, by the way. Also see this Boston Globe piece on how Kerry was in a huddle with advisors in Nantucket yesterday. But, note the caution put out by J. McIntyre at Instapundit. He warns Republicans not to get cocky, the dynamics of the race can chnage very quickly. A couple of lines:
"With the President’s job approval back around 50% , there is almost no chance Kerry can win the election in a big way. Right now there seem to be roughly three broad options: 1) a big Bush win (4-7 points), 2) Bush in a squeaker or 3) Kerry in a squeaker.

But if this election cycle has taught us anything, it is that the dynamic of this race can change quickly. As one who felt pretty good in December that Howard Dean was the almost certain Democratic nominee it would be a mistake to make too much of two-three week trend change.

Republicans should not become too cocky. Bush has had a good run and there is roughly a 33% chance that the poll bump from this convention and the 9/11 anniversary may be enough to TKO John Kerry. But there is also at least a 50% chance that before the first debate we will be staring at the same 50/50, dead heat race that we’ve more or less had since Kerry captured the nomination."

Discussions - 1 Comment

Dems are always panicky. I am not sure that the current situation warrants a pronouncement of death just yet:

Likely voters
Bush Kerry Date
ABC 49 49 8/29
Time 46 46 8/26
FOX 44 45 8/25
Gallup 50 47 8/25
NPR 45 50 8/24

Registered Voters
Bush Kerry Date
ABC 48 49 8/29
Gallup 47 48 8/25
LA 49 46 8/24
CSM 44 44 8/23

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