This is the cause of the apparent Democratic spiral to obscurity according to Jonah Goldberg in this interesting op-ed in todays Los Angeles Times. Its a nice overview of low-lights of their disasterous last week--which only augment the trend of decline. I liked these lines the best: "Some Democrats are furious that their party doesnt have its own ideas. Other say they do have ideas, theyre just keeping them secret for now. That sounds a lot like the high school geek who insists that his girlfriend is really hot but lives in an undisclosed location in Canada."
Goldbergs "girlfriend" analogy is funny, but not in point. The Democrats dont necessarily need ideas, nor do they necessarily need the voters to like them. They just need the voters to support them as against the GOP.
Election 2006 isnt looking good right now. If the Dems underperform, I will feel more comfortable talking about their decline. Right now, it seems more a hope than a reality.
Dean was on TV today and making an arse out of himself as usual.
According to Jonah, there are three wings in the Democratic Party. Mr. Frisk echoed the Pelosi "We can win without ideas" wing, and tkc echoed the Dean "We can win bashing Bush" wing. Oddly enough --I never thought Id say this-- that leaves the third wing embracing some semblance of maturity: The Hillary wing. The Hillary wing instinctively knows to other two wings aint gonna get the beast airborne. They are correct. But the beast cant fly with just one wing either.
Oh, what a pickle these Dems are in, eh? The only question that remains is, "Are Democrats gonna learn to bide their time (like the GOP did in the post-New Deal years) as Reaganite lites, or are they gonna self-destruct altogether?" Im still opting for the latter.
Theyre liberals after all, aint they? Like Fitzgeralds Tom and Daisy, they just go around smashing things up for the helluvit.
The Democrats really are in a bad position for 2008 simply because of their candidate situation. I agree that Hillary is probably their most sane and seemingly moderate voice as well as being well-known (obviously) and popular within her party. Of course, the trouble is that so many people have a visceral hatred for the woman that her negative poll numbers are through the roof which means she probably has almost no chance of winning in the general election. What is a party to do when its presumptive leader and most popular figure cant win? Unless another candidate emerges, it would seem all such a party can do is lose.
where can we find real-time poll numbers for Hillary?
Speaking of positioning in 2008... see how the real Movement does it:
Check out the latest!
Conservative Tail Wags GOP Dog -- Again
By Christian Josi
Published 2/14/2006 12:06:24 AM
As the 33rd annual Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) roared to a close Saturday night in Washington D.C., New York State Conservative Party leaders and activists began to descend upon snowy Albany, as they have done for 39 years now, for their own Conservative Party Political Action Conference (CPPAC).
Much like the national conference, CPPAC attendees were treated to speeches and panels on issues such as election law, stem cell research, and so on. Yet unlike the national event, CPPAC is a party conference, and with statewide elections looming in November, the New York State Conservative Party stands at maybe the most critical juncture of its 43-year history.
In recent months the undistinguished outgoing Governor George Pataki (who would never have become governor back in 1994 without the votes cast for him on the Conservative Party line) has finally distinguished himself -- as having spent more time in Iowa than any other presidential hopeful. Meanwhile, back in the Empire State, he has left behind a legacy of multiple disappointments including a basically wrecked state Republican Party lacking both a backbench and a backbone.
As such, the feeble State GOP leadership (presumably with Patakis blessing) has decided that their partys best hope against the formidable presumptive Democratic nominee, Eliot Spitzer, lies in one William Weld. Yes, William Weld, the former two-term Governor of Massachusetts, has moved to New York to do it all over again. Yes, the same William Weld whom conservatives thought had been relegated to the political ash heap after Senator Jesse Helms famously nuked his nomination as U.S. Ambassador to Mexico during the Clinton era.
"The fact that Weld is the leading contender speaks volumes about the state of the New York GOP," said Tony Fabrizio, a nationally known Republican strategist and New York native. "How can there be no homegrown contender groomed and prepared to take on someone like Spitzer? The need for them to call on a former Governor of Massachusetts, a guy to the left of Pataki, when they know all too well that they are toast this time around if they dont field someone acceptable to conservatives is just amazing."
But the New York State Conservative Party -- the tail which has at times wagged the State GOP dog with astonishing effectiveness over the years but seemed to some to have become a bit passive over the course of the Pataki era -- is just not having it.
There are in fact four candidates seeking both the Republican and Conservative party nominations: Weld, current Secretary of State Randy Daniels, former Assembly Republican leader-turned lobbyist John Faso, and a young Assemblyman from the upper Hudson Valley, Patrick Manning. To date, Faso and Manning seem to be the clear favorites of the Conservative rank and file, some seem to find Daniels relatively acceptable, and very few have warmed to the concept of a Weld candidacy.
Mike Long, a tough and feisty Marine with uncommon political acumen, has led the Conservative Party since 1988. In the days leading up to CPPAC, Long reiterated that Weld is highly unlikely to wind up with his partys nomination. Further, if indeed the state GOP leadership doesnt abandon its support for Weld in favor of a candidate more acceptable to conservatives, it is widely believed that the Conservatives will field a general election ticket of their own.
Such a development would, of course, ensure a Spitzer victory in November, but many conservatives both in and out of the state believe that to be a small price to pay in exchange for delivering a crystal clear message to the Republicans that the days of taking the states Conservatives for granted are over for good.
Author and conservative strategist Craig Shirley, also a native New Yorker, is one of them. "Conservatives in New York would do well to consider carefully at what point they will gag too much on a moderate/liberal nominated by the states GOP and possibly nominate their own candidate, if only to teach the GOP establishment a lesson. Politics can be a noble calling, but this requires patience, discipline and the courage to say no when you have to, political consequences be damned. The time for the New York Conservatives to say no may well be upon them this year," Shirley said.
In a letter circulated to party activists last week in advance of the CPPAC conference, George J. Marlin, a Conservative Party elder who recently documented the partys distinguished history in his book Fighting the Good Fight, wrote:
In the past decade, Republicans have betrayed us on every conceivable issue... I urge you to support statewide candidates who do not fear standing up for our principles and are therefore willing to run this November solely on the Conservative line.
So where does the saga stand apres CPPAC? The aforementioned snow having prohibited your correspondent from covering events live from the scene, we turned to Chairman Long via telephone as the conference wrapped up:
CJ: How did the wannabes fare? I assume Weld, Daniels, Faso, and Manning were all on handâ€¦ are any of them showing momentum amongst the faithful?
ML: All four were indeed on hand. Weld gained no ground whatsoever -- nothing changed there. All were received cordially, but it appears to me that while (Daniels) was a great speaker, Faso and Manning have clearly garnered most of the support amongst the rank and file.
CJ: If you had to make a prediction right now, how do you see this playing out? Do you get the sense that most of your folks support running an independent ticket if need be?
ML: There was great sentiment at CPPAC from our leaders throughout the state to mobilize rapidly behind our own candidate. This is important to help make the point to the Republicans that Weld is a no-go. If we pick the right candidate, it could position them to win a Republican primary statewide. I think most of our folks are willing to support either Faso or Manning as long as theres a clear commitment to run on the conservative party line regardless of whether they ultimately win the Republican nomination -- so that they will be our candidate, and in it to the end, regardless.
CJ: What is wrong with the NY Republican Party? Is it arrogance? Ineptitude? Both?
ML: None of the above, really. They have simply lost the will to stand for principle. They have lost the will to stand for true Republican ideas. They now believe in their own theory that New York State is a Blue State, so we all might as well start acting more like Democrats and less like Republicans -- particularly Conservative Republicans in the mold of Reagan.
CJ: Some have suggested a compromise scenario, whereby the Conservatives might go along with Weld if they were given the opportunity to choose his running mate. True?
CJ: Can conservatives outside of New York do anything to support you all in this?
ML: At the moment, not really. Once we designate a candidate for Governor, well need help in the form of contributions to the candidate, endorsements, columns in publications like the Spectator... well need all the help we can get from conservatives everywhere. I urge our allies to keep up with the developments by visiting the party website, www.cpnys.org.
Christian Josi, a senior vice president at the Washington D.C.-based Dezenhall Resources, served as Executive Director of the American Conservative Union from 1999-2002. He developed a fascination with the NY State Conservative Party while working as a consultant in New York politics during the 1990s.