Strengthening Constitutional Self-Government

No Left Turns

The Republicans Might Just Hang On

Here’s a thorough and rather optimistic read of the recent Gallup poll. Bush helps Republican congressional candidates when it comes to the war on terror, and he doesn’t seem to hurt as much as we thought when it comes to Iraq. A 44% approval rating ain’t good, but it’s far from diastrous or unprecedented. A quick surf of Real Clear Politics and NRO reveals good news in MD (Steele has drawn even--a chance for a R upset and pick-up!), OH (also now a genuine tie), and PA (where Santorum is only down 7%). Allen continues to drift toward implosion, though.

Discussions - 7 Comments

We’ll be ok in the Senate. The House depends on Bush’s performance. If he gets to 46 or above, we should hold. If not, it will be tough.

Governors--it looks like we’re screwed either way.

I’m not sure what you’re referring too about Allen. He’s going to win comfortably.

Allen is wussy and has made the blunder of trying to attack Webb from the left on two vital issues, women in combat and reverse racism. Not good ways to invigorate or show respect for the base. I suspect that Webb, although perhaps not a very intelligent campaigner, is more aggressive and may impress the sorts of voters who can be impressed by macho posturing and a macho record ... that’s thirty-five years old.

You guys still trust polls? Didn’t you see how badly wrong they were in Ohio 2004? Assuming the vote count was accurate, then polls are pretty much useless.

Polls can be off and should be treated skeptically. But they are rarely off by a huge amount. Exit polls in ’04 were an exception. Some of them heavily oversampled women and therefore Democrats. Also, if your pollsters in an in-person poll look like Democrats (e.g. liberal-looking college kids or post-college grungesters), you get a selection bias. Republicans, in other words, are less likely to respond.

Polls were great in 2004; "exit polls" were not. The RCP average is about as good as it gets.

Yea, you ignore scientific polls at your peril. Exit polls, on the other hand, have quality-control problems...often they aren’t worth the paper they are reported on.

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