...according to Rasmussen. And, in my opinion, he did very well in the You Tube debate. He and McCain seemed like the authentic and comfortably principled candidates, and Huck was witty and quick on his feet as well. According to some experts, that means things are looking good for Rudy. Ramesh, for example, claims that Giuliani could only win a one-on-one race againt Huckabee, and that prospect is looking more and more likely. Of course, it might be the case that Huck is peaking too early and McCain will end up as the surprise winner. I’m not at all sure myself. There are similiarities between Huckabee’s and Dean’s word-of-mouth and internet-based campaigns.
And it still might be the case that Huck could be quickly decimated by a negative campaign based on actual Arkansas facts. But my own view is that the social conservatives will stay true to their desire to take their stand in Iowa. I’m not saying this is a good thing, but for us poltical scientists facts are facts.
Glad you scientists are finally realizing that Huck is going to win; it's about time:)
Peter, can you please make a convincing argument why Huckabee's Arkansas record is destined to sink his campaign? He seems to me to be able to eloquently defend his record from the critics and nothing sticks to him. I mean the scholarships for the children of illegal immigrants was supposed to sink him, yet he deftly fended off Romney's attacks and showed the prudence of his decision not to punish children for the crimes of their parents. Huck is going to win.
His record will sink him because it sharply wars with his rhetoric on the campaign trail. Not to mention he's been overplaying his Republican Jimmy Carter act, ... you know, his Born Again bit. That might sell well with a small milieu of Iowa voters, but it's not going to cut it with the wider electorate. And Jimmy Carter's act, as Steve Hayward noted in his first volume of THE AGE OF REAGAN, came in the immediate aftermath of the LBJ years, the Pentagon Papers and the Watergate scandal. Absent those scandals, and others, and Jimmy Carter's shtick wouldn't have cut it.
Huckabee is running a 1980s, '90's and 2000 campaign.
He's overlooked how much the nation has changed due to the pathologies of the Clinton years, and the mendacity and incompetence of the Bush administration.
The happy face of a Southern Pastor isn't going to cut it. And it's sad that so many Bible Belters haven't the savvy to pick up on that. They're focused on their issues, and their scorn of the wider playing field isn't simply unwise, ... it's a self-indulgence, a Narcissism that is tantamount to decadence.
They won't like to hear this, but their behavior smacks of France, circa 1930s.
To Jamie: I doubt his record will do him in, but you never know. This morning, Giuliani's record is haunting him a lot more.
Peter: That's exactly it. You claimed a while ago that Huck's record on crime and pardons would do him in. Because Huck had the facts on his side, and because he is an intelligent and great speaker, as Jamie points out, he dealt with that easily. Meanwhile Romney has been sweltering under his Willie Horton issue for days. Neither Romney nor Giuliani have the same capacity to deflect attacks. There are two reasons: their records are not as good, and they can't speak in ways that endear the public.
Huckabee needs a "Cooper Union" moment.
The Huckabee Surge is on in South Carolina too! Momentum has been put in motion that will be extremely hard to derail.
Huckabee is Giuliani with a southern accent. I'll pass.
John that statement is completely ridiculous. Have you seen Huckabee elequently explain why he is pro-life? Have you heard him explain that the second amendment is about American's defending their right, from the government if necessary? Have you heard him explain the American founding and the principle of God-given rights that everyone has? If not, then I'm a bit suprised. If you are familiar with these statements, please point me to Giuliani's like statements so that I can consider voting for him too.
Have you lived in Arkansas like I have for 20 years? Trust me there are many important issues to use when selecting a candidate. Huckabee looks good to start because he is prochoice and progun, but the let down is pretty severe when you get to see him push the government in a liberal direction. I voted for him and defended him for a long time when others became upset with him, but eventually, even I had to wake up an smell the roses. Huckabee let down the conservatives in Arkansas, badly. We were sold out and sadly disappointed. The Baptist preacher angle may sound good, but ethics violations and sleazy deals are bad and Pastor Huckabee can claim both. He loves to raise taxes. He thinks it is his job to practice charity - with our money. He loves big government. He fought hard to close down school districts all over the state and move the state to having only a few BIG school districts, thus taking any power out of the hands of most of the people of Arkansas. He is for big government and government sponsored entitlements for illegal aliens. He is welcome to work with, help, and give money to all the illegal aliens he wants to, but let him use his own money and quit taking mine to do it. I prefer to decide on my own charities.
Clint: he smashed the hard drives of the computers in the governor's office before leaving office. His explanation for doing so? To protect the employees privacy.
And to piggy-back on Arkie, he IS a big-government Evangelical. I wish I were more eloquent and thus able to explain my reservations better, but my problem with Huckabee is that he feeds the evangelical tendancy to establish a Christian society on Earth. The ends are little different from what the liberal progressives want, but because the means are based on Christianity, his supporters don't seem to mind.
I agree that the comments 11 and 12 are somewhat troubling and need some sensible investigation. Andrew's first par. about the hard drive smashing needs to see the light of the mainstraeam media, his second is an exaggeration.
The school issue was not a fight of Huckabee's choosing, given that a supreme court decision demanded a change in school funding. Also, coming from a rural OH school, I know that consolidation of schools would be a good small government idea that could cut costs. Having a school system every 20 miles is a little redundant now that we have transporation.
The ethics "scandals" that I have seen are very petty, and mostly appear to be the result of the Democratic establishment trying to find some way to bring down a successful GOP politician in AR. "Ethics" boards are traditionally known to be partisian, and the best they could do was pretty weak stuff.
The GOP power establishment and all those who benefit from it will do anything to stop Huckabee because they can't control him. Good, let them try because then he will listen to them even less and just do the right thing when he's in office. I want a President who owes his election to the people rather than the establishment. The poor treatment Huckabee has received on this blog is generally for this reason.
Exaggerated? Yes. But Peter, doesn't it seem that Huckabee's political positions seem to be summed up by asking "What would Jesus do?"