Strengthening Constitutional Self-Government

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Why Obama Might Really Carry Georgia

McCain’s comfortable double-digit lead has dropped to only six, according to the latest study. And Obama is clearly organized in the state, and McCain isn’t. Here’s a conversation I overhead between two average white businessmen at the local PANERA this morning:

First guy: "I’ve already voted. I just don’t like what’s going on."

Second guy: "Maybe I’ll vote for Bush for dictator. Don’t you think it’s sketchy he wanted to give $700 billion dollars with no strings to someone he appointed?"

First guy: "I had to cancel a trip this week because I couldn’t get any gas. That damn [Republican Governor] Sonny Perdue should have had a plan ready, but he didn’t." [There’s been a severe gas shortage in Georgia, with almost all stations out at times. And the charge that the governor decided not to have an emergency plan ready is semi-true, as far as I can tell.]

Whatever the true facts might be in each case, it’s clear who’s been blamed and why.

Discussions - 4 Comments

Bush is as toxic as the muck that covers Galveston after hurricane Ike. Americans have been told again and again that their only recourse to this administration is the ballot box. Cheney said it 20 times on Meet the Press. if people do not like him, they can say it at the ballot box. Well, Americans have heard him, and they will say it by voting against almost anything republican that moves.

The fact that Obama is making a race of it in Georgia is just one more sign of how unlikely it now is that McCain will win in November. I don't honestly care if Obama wins Georgia per se. If he wins Georgia he is having a big night anyway, and who cares if Obama gets 270 electoral votes or 470?

But what creeps me out is the effect a strong Obama organization and an strong Obama national sweep is going to have down ticket. If Obama is running strong in Georgia, if the Republican President and the Republican governor are getting the blame for some real problems and the Republican presidential candidate isn't offering real solutions... then it can't feel great to be Senator Chambliss. And if the Republicans can't hold on to an incumbent Senator in Georgia then its going to be a tidal wave. All the worse because the only hope conservatives have to check or even moderate President Obama policies will be the Senate Republicans. If there are less than forty of them (and some of those left will be nervous moderates)then policy will be made at a meeting of Obama, Pelosi and Reid for at least two years. Alot of counrty transforming can be done in that time. Especially in an emergency atmosphere created by the recession.

For conservatives, the nightmare scenario for 2008 has been 1980 in reverse. Its time we revised our fears upwards. Think 1964 but without the good ideas.

It is hard to know who exactly to blame. For example I don't know who in particular is to blame for restricting the number of refineries, but I do know that we have fewer refineries than we need to meet projected demand. No new refineries have been built in a while(additions and technolical improvements in old ones have been made)...I believe since the late 60's?

Provided we have a lack of refineries and these refineries are concentrated in the Houston/Louisiana ares hit by hurricanes we can expect that gas prices will be higher than they should be given the recent fall(and continued pressure on it given the demand destruction/global sell off) in the price of oil. Higher than they should be had we more refineries, and more refineries less concentrated in the Houston area.

Gas prices have been dropping in part because gas stations expect that they will be able to buy more gasoline at a lower per gallon cost in the recent future...albeit this is dependent on refineries.

No gas available at gas stations in the south? I blame the mannagers for not raising prices. It is the lack of greed/foresight on the part of mannagers in Atlanta and other places in the south that led to shortages. On one level, "shortages" are the result of pricing a good too cheaply, increasing the price allows markets to ration. Allowing a businessman to take a trip at $7.00 a gallon, that a teenager going to the mall is unwilling to consider.

Of course I also blame the blend of environmental legistlation and crony capitalism responsible for maintaining the capital intensive/oligopoly that is the refinery business.

If we had more refineries the price of gas might be hovering at around $3.00 nationwide, as it is gas prices are decending at a slower pace.

The best sort of plan the governor could advocate would be increasing refinery capacity, but this would no doubt take 10-15 years, in the short run the second best option is increasing the price of fuel, this is a second best because it wouldn't be popular, and because in essence the government(and even good experts) are just plain slow to adequately micro-manage pricing, better to depend on the greed of local gas station managers to make adequate pricing decisions.

First, Lawler wasted his time listening to a conversation between two idiots. Then, he wasted his time by writing about it. Finally, he wasted our time by posting it. Democrats are generally better-organized than Republicans -- the only possible exception in recent times, nationally, speaking, was in 2004. McCain is certainly in trouble nationally, but in Georgia he will win by at least 6. Is the good professor really a Democrat at heart? He seems so ready to give up. And to spread his attitude toward others.

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